Thanksgiving this year will fall on Nov. 27. Not surprisingly, several studios are taking advantage of the four-day weekend by throwing their releases into theaters the day before, on Wednesday, Nov. 26. There are three, to be exact: a historical romantic drama, a romantic comedy with a Christmas theme, and an all-out action film. None are likely to be as big as the earlier November releases Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, Quantum of Solace, Bolt or Twilight — but that doesn't necessarily mean they are bad picks.

20th Century Fox is hoping for a big winter. They have The Day The Earth Stood Still and Marley & Me coming up in December, but to close out November, they have Australia, the latest directorial effort from Baz Luhrmann (Romeo + Juliet, Moulin Rouge!). The film stars Nicole Kidman, whose career has definitely seen better days. The ex-Mrs. Tom Cruise, who seemed to be hitting on all cylinders with hits like Days of Thunder, Far and Away, Batman Forever, The Peacemaker and Practical Magic, and hit her peak as a top biller with The Others in 2001, has been in a downward spiral ever since. Oh, she's had a couple of critical successes (Cold Mountain, Margot at the Wedding) and one or two box office successes as well (The Interpreter and Happy Feet, though the latter was more of an ensemble cast), but for the most part, the results have been dismal (The Stepford Wives, Bewitched, The Invasion and last winter's mega-bomb — in the States, anyway — The Golden Compass).

Australia also features Aussie hunk Hugh Jackman, who, after appearing as Wolverine in the first X-Men movie, seemed to be doing OK for a while. Swordfish, Kate and Leopold, Van Helsing, Christopher Nolan's The Prestige, Flushed Away, Happy Feet (again) and The Fountain were relative successes for the former Bond candidate. The only thing he's done in the last two years, however, is Deception this past spring, a film that singularly failed to draw an audience. And though he will be back as our favorite mutant next May in X-Men Origins: Wolverine, can the now-40 actor still pack the ladies into theaters? My guess: Probably so, but not nearly enough to make this a hit, and certainly not enough to recoup the reported $100 million that it cost to make the film (at least not domestically).

The film centers on Lady Sarah Ashley (Kidman), an English aristocrat who joins forces with a rugged cattle driver (Jackman) to save the remote cattle station that she inherited from local cattle barons. The pair embark on a journey to drive 2,000 head of cattle across Australia's Northern Territory, only to find themselves caught in the bombing of Darwin, the only battle fought in the land Down Under during World War II.

Shot almost entirely on location, and featuring many representatives of the indigenous population (Aborigines), Australia is almost sure to feature rich visuals typical of Luhrmann's work. And while it will almost certainly be entertaining, I'm not sure there's enough appeal to make this a bit hit. It will almost exclusively draw more mature audiences, and not much else. Kids and teenagers will probably still be flocking to see Bolt, Twilight or the new Transporter 3.

Fantasy Moguls predicts five Top 5 points, three PTA, a User Rating of 7.2 and $65 million in total receipts, and if that's the case, I would unequivocally NOT spend $20 on it in the November Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues. Now, the good news is that there is only one major release coming on the first Friday of December (Punisher: War Zone), so if Australia can somehow outduel Bolt, Twilight and Four Christmases to finish with a high number on its opening weekend, then it will probably hang on for more the following week. I just don't think it will. $16 in Box Office Moguls leagues is a little more feasible, but only if the theater count is around 3,000 and the prerelease tracking is through the roof.

Even though Vince Vaughn made his big screen debut in 1993 in Rudy, I had never actually heard of him until I saw The Lost World: Jurassic Park in 1997. And though he's knocked around for a while attempting to build a dramatic resume (Clay Pigeons, Psycho, The Cell, Into the Wild), he has definitely made a name for himself with a string of successful comedies, many of which have been box-office smashes: Swingers (a huge earner only by comparison with its productions costs), Zoolander, Old School, Starsky & Hutch, Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story, Anchorman, Be Cool, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, The Wedding Crashers, The Break-Up, and last year's Christmas-themed Fred Claus.

He took a break this past year to film and promote his Wild West Comedy Show, which rather struck out on the big screen in spring, but he's back with another Christmas-themed romantic comedy, this one called Four Christmases, in which he is paired with the delightful Reese Witherspoon. This is one of only two wide-release films this season with a Christmas motif (and the other, Nothing Like the Holidays, is bound to have a much smaller profile), so it could definitely be a film to keep your eye on.

Vaughn and Witherspoon play Brad and Kate, a "happily unmarried" couple who have spent the last several Christmas seasons in exotic tropical locations, going to great lengths to avoid spending time with any of their parents (who are all divorced). When their current vacation plans are waylaid by fog, however, they are browbeaten by their respective parents to finally pay them a visit. Yes, all of them. Four different parents, four different journeys, four different opportunities to have their pasts laid bare and their adolescent wounds reopened. Can their relationship survive such trauma (and make us laugh in the process)? I'm betting it can.

Reese Witherspoon has always had a lot of appeal to moviegoers of both sexes; though she has a flair for comedy, she also exudes an intelligence that often clashes with her blondeness. Put her together with Vaughn, and you have a combo that will definitely show in the box office numbers. Fantasy Moguls predicts six Top 5 points, four PTA, a User Rating of 5.8 and $70 million. Let's take those numbers one at a time.

First of all, the only things standing in between Four Christmases and that No. 1 spot on opening weekend are Bolt, Twilight and Australia. I'm betting Four Christmases can nail down $25 million straight out of the gate, minimum, and it could do as much as $35 million. That should be enough to top Bolt and Twilight, which will both be in their second weeks. And the target audience for this film, which is much more sizable than that of Australia, hasn't had a good non-R-rated romantic comedy to sink their teeth into for months. And given that the only major release one week after is the new Punisher movie, Four could definitely repeat as champion. The drop-off as we near Christmas Day is bound to be smaller than the average, as well.

Milk is pretty much a shoo-in to win PTA on this weekend, but Four Christmases could slip in as high as No. 2. No guesses on the User Rating, though somewhere in the 6s would be just fine. All in all, I predict no less than nine Top 5 points (though it could be as high as 15), four PTA, and a total take of $80 million. For $18 in the November Ultimate leagues, you honestly can't do much better. The Box Office price of $18 is also very tempting — just keep in mind that the drop-off in ticket sales the week after Thanksgiving could be severe. If the reviews and buzz are good, however, then Four Christmases may be one of the few titles unaffected by it.

It is with wry amusement that I remember what was going through my mind when I saw the original Transporter film in 2002. It looked like fast-paced, entertaining popcorn fun (and it was), though I had absolutely no idea who the guy playing the title character was. In fact, I couldn't even pronounce his name! Jason STA-them? Jason STAT-ham? (No, it's actually pronounced STAY-them). Directed by Louis Leterrier, the story of professional driver Frank Martin made a mere $25 million at the box office. Three years later, Statham returned in Transporter 2, also directed by Leterrier (and produced by Luc Besson), to the tune of $43 million.

Ever since the first Transporter made Statham a bankable action star, he has found mild success in a string of low-grade actioners, such as Cellular, Crank, War and this summer's Death Race. None of these have set the world on fire, but there's no doubt he's built a good-sized following, who will probably turn out to watch him kick butt again in Transporter 3. Only, this time, Leterrier has handed the directing reins over to Olivier Megaton. (Yeah, OK, make your own joke about a three-Megaton bomb right here.)

In this chapter, Frank is coerced into transporting Valentina (Natalya Rudakova), the kidnapped daughter of the head of Ukraine's EPA, from Marseilles to Odessa. Along the way, Frank has to deal with his "employers," various law-enforcement agencies, his recalcitrant passenger, and, oh yeah, the fact that he has been fitted with an explosive device that will detonate if he goes more than a few scant yards from his vehicle. Yikes, rough day at the office!

Though it sounds like just as much high-energy, switch-your-brain-off adrenalized fun as the rest of the series, it probably won't do gonzo business any more than the first two films did. I doubt it will do much more than $20 million on its opening weekend, and if the total take is more like $15 million, then it may not finish any higher than No. 4. Which means, when all is said and done, no more than three Top 5 points, no PTA, a rating in the 5s or low 6s, and probably not more than $45 million in receipts.

This is not the best weekend for this film to be released; in fact, it stinks. It may have done better in  the slot occupied by Death Race in August, but not much; that film made only $36 million (in summer), and though it surprised with four PTA, don't look for the same result from Transporter 3. Consider also that the target audience for this film is precisely the same one that will be targeted by Punisher: War Zone, which opens one week later. It is absolutely not worth $17 in the Ultimate game (not when Four Christmases has MUCH more potential), and I'd give it a miss for $14 in Box Office for the same reason. There are better picks before it, after it and pretty much all the way through the end of the season.

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Please return next week when I will be critiquing the chances of three more films scheduled for wide release on the weekends of Dec. 5 and Dec. 12: Punisher: War Zone, the sequel to the 2004 film based on the Marvel Comics character — only with Ray Stevenson taking Thomas Jane's place in the title role — The Day the Earth Stood Still, a remake of the 1951 sci-fi classic starring Keanu Reeves as Klaatu, an alien messenger in human form sent to warn us about the impending destruction of humanity; and, finally, Delgo, an animated feature about a teenager from a reptilian race who must stop a war orchestrated by a power-hungry villain.

Props Department: Congratulations to Girls_with_Glasses, chugsthemonkey, pulpclub and Kompressr for their victories in the just-completed August Super Leagues. Well done, guys! Kudos also to Donte77, for the ass-whupping he put on the rest of the field in the August Regulars League V For Vendetta, claiming victory by more than 16 points. Gadzooks, that's impressive! And finally, three cheers to, well, ME, for my victory in the Trappings of Success Box Office league, which just happens to be my very first Box Office victory since the damn DRAFT DAYS. Wow, that's a long time.

If you haven't yet registered for the 2009 Super Leagues, don't forget to do so! We will be starting up again in January, so be sure to get in! Check out my Web site or the Fantasy Moguls message boards for the rules and registration process, or just send me an e-mail at the address listed below. We already have more than 50 contestants signed up for each tournament, and I am hoping we can get well over 100 this time! What are you waiting for?!

TTFN!

Shrykespeare is hooked up to an explosive device that will detonate if fewer than 75 people have signed up to participate in the Super Leagues by Thanksgiving. Let's get it together, people! Send your Super League inquiries to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.