The weekend of Dec. 5, the first Friday following the Thanksgiving holiday, is typically the harbinger of very low totals at the ticket counters. On this weekend last year, Enchanted, Beowulf, This Christmas, and Hitman all dropped 50-55 percent from the previous weekend, and yet STILL managed to finish 1-4, ahead of Nov. 30's only wide release: Awake, which finished at No. 5 with a paltry $5.9 million (and rightly so, ugh).

Can we expect the same result for Bolt, Twilight, Four Christmases, Australia and Transporter 3 this year? Short answer: Very likely. And the bleak fate that awaited Awake may very well be the same one that awaits Punisher: War Zone. This is a sequel to the 2004 film starring Thomas Jane as Frank Castle, an undercover agent who ran afoul of a vicious crime boss (John Travolta), who proceeded to have Frank's entire family murdered and Frank left for dead. Afterward, he became a one-man weapon of revenge, much like the Marvel comic book the film was based on.

Hampered somewhat by an April release, the first film only gunned down $33.8 million in theaters. Why someone thought it deserved a sequel is beyond me, and why the project wasn't scrapped after both Jane and director Jonathan Hensleigh backed out baffles me even more. Still, the name "Marvel" carries some weight, which means that the comic-geek crowd will probably turn out in so-so numbers to catch this completely unnecessary sequel.

The skull-embossed vigilante, now played by Irish actor Ray Stevenson (King Arthur), decides to mete out his brand of justice against mob boss Billy Russoti (Dominic West), leaving him horribly scarred and thirsty for vengeance of his own, under a new moniker that fans of the comic will recognize: Jigsaw (and before you raise the rafters, keep in mind that this character was created LONG before the Saw series was conceived). Frank must find a way to stay alive as enemies on both sides of the law close in on him. Wayne Knight, Dash Mihok and Doug Hutchison co-star.

When I saw the first film, I wasn't that familiar with Thomas Jane. To be honest, I thought he was a poor man's Christopher Lambert. Now, to be even more candid, Stevenson looks like a poor man's Steven Seagal. I don't know much about War Zone director Lexi Alexander beyond her Wikipedia entry, which isn't very large. But when you combine a novice director, a little-known cast, an R-rating and a piss-poor release date ... well, it's a gamble I wouldn't take.

Fantasy Moguls predicts three Top 5 points, one PTA, a User Rating of 5.7 and $24 million at the box office. To be frank (heh), I would be surprised if it reached any of those plateaus. For $8 in the November Ultimate leagues, I have to believe you can do much better (starting with an arthouse title being released this same weekend, Cadillac Records, not to mention The Spirit or January's Bride Wars). And for $6 in Box Office? Meh. Take your chances elsewhere.

In 1951, director Robert Wise brought to the big screen a film that was destined to become a science fiction classic. In this story, a flying saucer lands in Washington, D.C., and an alien named Klaatu emerges and declares that he has come on a mission of goodwill. Asking to speak to the world's leaders, he receives a less-than-stellar welcome, being accidentally shot and taken prisoner, albeit soon escaping. Klaatu eventually meets Professor Barnhardt, who he informs that people living on other planets are concerned for their safety now that mankind has developed atomic weapons, and that if his message is rejected by Earth's leaders, the entire planet will be decimated.

Fifty-seven years later, an updated version of The Day the Earth Stood Still (Dec. 12) makes its way into theaters, this time with Scott Derrickson (The Exorcism of Emily Rose) at the helm. Klaatu is being played by Neo himself, Keanu Reeves, and the impressive cast of supporting characters includes Jennifer Connelly, Kathy Bates, Jaden Smith and, in a bit of surprise casting, comedic actor John Cleese as Professor Barnhardt.

Shot on location in Vancouver, The Day the Earth Stood Still at least has the potential to explode at the box office, much like I Am Legend did one year ago. It has a well-known star, a familiar storyline mixing sci-fi with some of the classic disaster films, and a primo release date. On the other hand, if the updated "message of peace" (namely, ditching the "nuclear warfare" theme for more of a "man vs. nature" theme) rings hollow with both critics and moviegoers, then it could very well suffer the same chilly reception that the The Golden Compass got at the ticket counters.

There is little doubt that this film will win its opening weekend. Just how big it will open, however, remains a mystery. As I said in my "Weekend Winners" column, it could be as low as $20 million or as high as $50 million, so I'll split the difference and say $35 million for its first three days. Whatever the number, its time at the top will be short-lived, as it will have to contend with a whole horde of films with just as much (if not more) appeal than this one coming out in the next two weeks, not the least of which are the latest movies starring Will Smith and Jim Carrey.

Fantasy Moguls predicts 11 Top 5 points, five PTA, a 6.9 User Rating and $155 million at the ticket counters. If it actually does that $50 million OW, then it has a chance to reach those numbers, but that's a pretty long shot. I predict seven or eight Top 5, and only two or three PTA, max, and I think this film will top out around $120 million. I backed the wrong horse last winter, I know, but I'd honestly be surprised if this one ends up being the champ of December, no matter how big-budget and grandiose it looks. For $32 in Ultimate ($33 in Box Office), this will NOT give you the numbers you need.

Anyone know who Freestyle Releasing is? It is the studio, founded in 2003, that's given us such "classic" films as Skinwalkers, Kickin' It Old Skool, Captivity, Dragon Wars, In the Name of the King, Postal and, most recently, The Haunting of Molly Hartley. Not exactly the most impressive track record, is it? (Yes, they actually had a couple of critical hits, The Illusionist and The Painted Veil, but, really, any studio that associates itself with Uwe Boll is just asking for it.)

Freestyle's next victim, er, I mean, title is an animated film called Delgo (Dec. 12), and, honestly, if you've seen the poster, the trailer or the one-sheet, then I think you'll agree that this film ain't going to be the one that breaks the hex. Directed by Marc Adler and Jason Maurer, Delgo is set in the land of Jhamora, a land torn apart by the mutual prejudice of two peoples — the winged Nohrin and the terrestrial Lockni. When a reckless Lockni teenager named — you guessed it — Delgo (Freddie Prinze Jr.) forms a friendship with Nohrin Princess Kyla (Jennifer Love Hewitt), hostilities between the races escalate, and the pair, along with a small group of their friends, must try to prevent an all-out war between their peoples and stop a power-hungry ruler from taking over.

The animation that I saw from the trailer looks state-of-the-art ... if this were 1991. The cast, while noteworthy — it also features Sally Kellerman, Anne Bancroft, Val Kilmer, Malcolm McDowell, Louis Gossett Jr., Michael Clarke Duncan, Chris Kattan, Eric Idle, Kelly Ripa and Burt Reynolds — is really not a factor ... kids don't see animated films based on who the voices are. And make no mistake, this film is for kids ONLY.

Okay, brutal honesty time. Those of you who scored fairly big with Space Chimps this past summer are probably looking hard at this title, given that it only costs $2 in Box Office leagues. And honestly, it could be a very good sleeper pick. Just remember that Universal Studios is opening the much-better-looking The Tale of Despereaux only one week later. Between that and Disney's Bedtime Stories, the potential audience for Delgo could dry up in a hurry.

If it makes $10 million overall, hey, it's a good pick. You honestly can't hope for much more for $2. It'll only run you $3 in Ultimate, but you don't want a pick that's going to drag your roster down: the User Rating will probably be below 5.0, and one Top 5 point is the most you are going to get. Honestly, they should have bumped it to January, where it could have been 2009's The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything (and that's actually a compliment).

Last week, I wasn't sure whether Nothing Like the Holidays (Dec. 12) would fall within my purview or Indie Jones's, but Box Office Mojo has it listed as a wide-release film, so I'll devote a few paragraphs to it here. Last week, I talked about Four Christmases and the potential gold for its "holiday" theme, and this week, I'll gab about the only other movie this winter with a holly-jolly air. And while the cast of this film, directed by Alfredo De Villa, has no shortage of recognizable names (and for all I know, may be a much better film than 4XMS), there is no way it's going to be as big a hit.

The primary reason that I say that is because it's being distributed by Overture films, who have only had three movies crack $20 million: Mad Money ($20.7), Traitor ($23.4) and Righteous Kill ($39.6). And though Kill was a steal for as little as $2 a few months ago, Nothing Like the Holidays is not priced nearly as cheaply.

In this film, three Puerto Rican siblings return to their parents' home in an area on Chicago's northwest side known as "Humboldt Park" (which was the original title for the film), only to have the bombshell dropped that their mother is leaving their father. Yikes. Realizing that this could very well be the last Christmas they spend together as a whole family, the siblings do what they can to make sure it's a memorable one. John Leguizamo, Freddy Rodriguez, Jay Hernandez, Vanessa Ferlito, Luis Guzman, Alfred Molina, Elizabeth Pena and Debra Messing make up the cast.

While there is a certain amount of appeal, and definitely a lot more love than the bile being cast about in the Vaughn/Witherspoon offering, I honestly can't see this film making a big splash. It may indeed finish as high as No. 2 on its OW, but probably won't earn more than $15 million, and it'll drop right off the map when the heavy hitters come a-calling the following week. PTA will be problematic with Doubt, The Reader, Wendy and Lucy and TDTESS bowing this week, so let's say four Top 5, no PTA, a User Rating between 4 and 5 (typical for minority-infused casts) and $30 million overall. For $9 in Ultimate, it skirts the line between "barely worth it" and "barely not", and for $10 in Box Office, it crosses that line into "definitely not" territory.

We are up over 75 entries for all of the Super League tournaments, so thankfully, the explosive device mentioned by my editor in last week's column has been defused. We still have more than a month and a half to go, so there's no way we are NOT reaching 100 entrants this time around, right? RIGHT??

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Please tune in next week, when I will be talking about the weekend of Dec. 19, one of the most quality-packed weekends of the entire year. Not only are their several highly-acclaimed limited-release films on the docket (including The Wrestler and Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino, which Indie Jones will be talking about at length, I'm sure), but there are no less than FOUR big-scale films stomping into theaters, all of which have various levels of hit potential; Seven Pounds, where Will Smith sheds his superhero rags for a more serious emotional drama in an attempt to extend his consecutive blockbuster streak to an unprecedented 12 straight $100 million grossers; Yes Man, Jim Carrey's first attempt at mainstream comedy in three years; The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, an enigmatic film about a man aging backwards reuniting actor Brad Pitt with director David Fincher for the third time (after Se7en and Fight Club); and Universal's animated The Tale of Despereaux, the story of an uncharacteristically brave mouse based on the best-selling novel.

TTFN!

If Shrykespeare were an alien with a message for Earth, then he'd definitely seek out Jennifer Connelly before seeing about John Cleese. Dude, Ted, what's up with that? Send your theories to shrykespeare42@gmail.com.