When a particular weekend, especially ones that fall in or around a major holiday, is the release date for many titles that look like quality films, one wonders just how such a crowded schedule will affect them all. Obviously, not all of them will be breakout hits ... one or two, perhaps, with maybe a mid-range success, and one or two disappointments. The weekend of Dec. 21, 2007 was just such a weekend, as it featured no less than five major films being loosed into theaters right before Christmas. National Treasure: Book of Secrets rode to over $200 million overall. Charlie Wilson's War and P.S. I Love You were able to find mid-range success, and Sweeney Todd, though not a failure, most would call an underperformer. The final film to come out that day, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, was a box office disaster.

With Christmas falling on a Thursday, there are no less than EIGHT wide-release movies being shoved into cineplexes between Dec. 19 and Dec. 26. Some of them feature the biggest names that Hollywood has to offer: Will Smith, Jim Carrey, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler. The same logic must apply, however — they can't ALL succeed. So, which ones will break out, and which ones will be left in the dark?

This will probably be as close as my column comes to mimicking Mister Informative's awesome monthly "Studs and Duds" column, but it seems appropriate, given how rare it is that so many large-scale projects are bowing on consecutive weekends. I will therefore start with what is my surest bet to find success, that being Seven Pounds, starring the seemingly failure-proof Will Smith. The last time that Big Willy teamed up with director Gabriele Muccino, it was for The Pursuit of Happyness, an emotional "based on a true story" drama that warmed audiences in December of 2006. It grossed over $163 million, and Smith followed that success up with I Am Legend ($256 million) last winter and Hancock ($227 million) this past summer.

It seems I was incorrect in last week's column when I said that Seven Pounds would be Smith's attempt at 12 consecutive blockbusters ($100 million earners); actually, it would be 13. Going all the way back to Independence Day (and discounting Ali and The Legend of Bagger Vance, which were clearly meant for smaller audiences), Smith's films have earned a staggering $2.2 billion, an average of $187 million per picture. Those numbers don't lie, folks. Now, while Smith has more than proven himself as a multi-faceted actor who can find an audience in pretty much any genre (drama, action, comedy, animated, sci-fi), can he do the same with a somber, heart-tugging tearjerker like Seven Pounds? Answer: abso-friggin'-lutely. It probably won't bring in the under-25 crowd in droves, but it'll do just fine.

What's it about? Well, unlike most of Smith's ventures, the meat of the plot behind Seven Pounds has been kept pretty well under wraps. From what I can gather, Smith plays Ben Thomas, an IRS agent who becomes suicidal after being involved in an accident that claimed the lives of seven people. Out of his despondency, he vows to change the lives of seven other people that he doesn't know (whether they have any connection to the victims is unknown); in effect, atoning for his sins by giving "seven pounds" of his own flesh. Rosario Dawson, Woody Harrelson and Barry Pepper co-star, and Tom Cruise's 13-year-old son Connor has a cameo appearance as a younger version of Ben.

This being a Will Smith vehicle, a $40 million opening weekend en route to a $150 million total gross definitely seems within reach for this film, which looks to be the highest-profile family feel-good drama of the season. Fantasy Moguls predicts nine Top 5 points, four PTA, and a 6.9 User Rating. It will have some stiff competition from Yes Man (which I'll get to in a moment), not to mention several titles bowing on Christmas Day, but if it can escape the Christmas weekend still in the Top 5, it could hold on for an additional week, as the first Friday in January has no wide-release films coming out at all. I predict 11 Top 5, which makes its price tag of $28 in Ultimate leagues very alluring. Will Smith's movies always seem to produce great stats regardless of how high quality the finished product ends up being, and there's no reason to believe that that trend will stop now. $32 in Box Office is a slightly tougher sell, as there are a couple of other films that might have a bit more monetary potential.

The last time Jim Carrey did a live-action comedy was in 2005, when Fun with Dick and Jane put together a respectable $110 million run. Before that, Bruce Almighty and How the Grinch Stole Christmas both achieved double-blockbuster status. And while he has made a few (sometimes unwelcome) side-trips into drama and horror, he is now back in the genre that made him the king of the '90s. Yes Man, from the look of things, could spell a glorious return to the top.

Directed by Peyton Reed (The Break-Up, Bring It On), Yes Man tells the story of Carl Allen (Carrey), a man who has habitually turned down ... well, everything. Social activities, responsibilities, you name it, he's shunned it all. After an old acquaintance drags him to a seminar presided over by a renowned self-help guru (Terence Stamp), however, he realizes, in one fell swoop, that "Yes is more," and vows that, for a full year, he will say "yes" to everything that comes his way, from learning Korean to bungee jumping to street surfing.

Despite his propensity for OTT (over the top) performances, the one thing I've always liked about Carrey's "feel good" comedies, the ones with a message for the audience, is his ability to get the message across without beating us over the head with it. In Liar Liar (IMHO, his funniest movie ever), he is fairly humbled by the realization that he is irresponsible and a bad father. In Bruce Almighty, it takes the power of God himself to discover that he's always had power to change his own life. The obvious message in Yes Man, to live life to its fullest, is apparently conveyed without plot contrivances like a magic birthday wish or divine intervention (and for that I'm grateful), and I have no doubt that Carrey will make us laugh a lot while getting this message across.

Going against Will Smith is a tall order for anyone, but I think that the race will be closer than one might think. I think Yes Man will be another "stud" for the weekend, pulling in around $35 million of its own, and leave theaters come winter's end with around $130 million. For $20 in Ultimate, you probably won't get more than six or seven Top 5 points and a few PTA, but you could do a lot worse. And for $23 in Box Office, I think this will give you the best return on your investment than any other film this weekend. Welcome back, Jim, we missed you!

In 2004, the Newbery Medal, an annual prize given to an outstanding American children's book, went to a story, now a movie, called The Tale of Despereaux. In the book, written by Kate DiCamillo, a tiny, sickly mouse is born with Dumbo-sized ears and the ability to read. Showing a brazen talent for courage (and contravening every rule in his society), he strikes up a friendship with Pea, a human princess, which leads to Despereaux's eventual imprisonment, escape and a series of adventures.

Universal Studios is hoping that this title, the final animated film of the year, will be one that brings the kiddies to theaters in high numbers. Featuring the voice talents of Matthew Broderick (as Despereaux) and Hermione Granger herself, Emma Watson (as Pea), along with Dustin Hoffman, Tracey Ullman, Sigourney Weaver, William H. Macy, Kevin Kline, Stanley Tucci, Robbie Coltrane and Christopher Lloyd, The Tale of Despereaux has a fair amount of potential. If I were Mister Informative, however, I would definitely make this my "Wild Card," as it is being released smack dab in the middle of a season rife with potential.

If The Day the Earth Stood Still opens low and/or has a bad second week, this movie could debut at No. 3 on its opening weekend, with between $10 and $15 million. It'll probably be pushed out of that category the following week, however, when Bedtime Stories, Marley & Me and The Spirit make their debuts. PTA probably won't happen, as it will have both The Wrestler and Gran Torino (not to mention all the other big flicks) to deal with, and honestly, two or three Top 5 points and $45 million are not enough to spend $12 on it. The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, a film aimed at pretty much the same demographic, scratched out $40 million in a similar time-frame last year, if you remember, so this is an iffy pick at best, and the same goes for spending $11 on it in Box Office. Tread carefully.

[NOTE: when I wrote the rough draft for this column, I was under the impression that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button would be released on Dec. 19. I have since been informed of the fact (a fact confirmed by several other sources) that it will actually be released on Christmas Day, along with Bedtime Stories, Marley & Me, The Spirit and Valkyrie. Rather than scrap my already-written critique of it, though, I'll just go ahead and review it now, as postponing it would give me FIVE films to preview next week. I have, however, rejigged my predictions to reflect the date change.]

It's unfortunate that there has to be a "dud" in this group, and even more unfortunate that said dud has to be one that looks so good on paper, but nonetheless, I'm picking The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Dec. 25) to be one of the proverbial odd men out in this two-weekend span. This film (based on a short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald) marks the third collaborative effort between director David Fincher (Zodiac) and actor Brad Pitt (Burn After Reading). Most will agree that Fight Club, which only grossed $37 million domestically, is a cult classic, and that Se7en, which barely cracked nine digits itself, is one of the best and coolest "serial killer" flicks of all time. And while the differences between those films and Benjamin Button, from the plot to the visuals and so forth, are as night and day, I just don't think that there will be mass appeal for it.

Don't get me wrong, I love David Fincher, and I've rediscovered Brad Pitt as an actor in the last two years. It looks like a very intriguing, if cryptic, story: a man named Benjamin Button is born an old man (how and why is unknown), and as he "ages," he physical body gets younger, if that makes sense. The trailer, which is basically a pastiche of him at various stages of his life, fighting in a war, traveling the globe, meeting and falling in love with a girl named Daisy (Cate Blanchett), and so forth.

Paramount Pictures, which has had a phenomenal year, will, I think, have a tough time selling this film. It has all the makings of a prestige picture, set up as possible Oscar bait. But with its reported budget of $150 million (the largest, by far, that Fincher has ever had to work with), it also seems to be targeting moviegoers of all ages. The trouble is, I think it would take almost universally positive reviews to even have a chance to make that back. And maybe even not then.

99.99 percent of all wide-release films are put into theaters for one of two reasons: to make money, or to garner awards. Some films attempt to do both, but very few have the ability to pull it off; far more end up in that no man's land in-between ... not quite good enough to win the statuettes and not enough appeal to be a solid box office hit. And while I am truly looking forward to this movie, I think it's one of the riskiest films of the season. I can't see it pulling more than $25-30 million on its opening (three-day) weekend, which may or may not be enough to muscle its way past Seven Pounds and/or Yes Man in their second week (and it certainly won't beat Bedtime Stories). But if it disappoints even more than that, say $15-20 million, it may not even beat Marley & Me or The Spirit, depending on how those films open. Which means, basically, that it could debut as high as No. 2, or as low as No. 5, and hang on to that same spot the first Friday in January.

I know, such an open-ended prediction doesn't help you very much, given that it could end up with as many as ten Top 5 points or as few as two. Whatever the case, I would absolutely not spend $26 on it in the November Ultimate leagues (not when you can pick up Will Smith for $2 more or Adam Sandler for $4 less, both of which have much more appeal, and the same logic applies to spending $31 on it in Box Office).

Well, that will do it for me for another week. You can plan to hear from me one more time, but since it may not be to talk about the remaining films of December, here's a brief overview: Disney looks to break the bank with Bedtime Stories, starring Adam Sandler, who hopes to continue his own streak of blockbuster comedies in what may be his most family-friendly movie EVER. In Marley & Me, Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston decide to adopt a puppy and end up with the most mischievous dog on God's green Earth. For The Spirit, Frank Miller adapts the work of Will Eisner to bring us the latest comic-book adaptation chronicling the exploits of a rookie cop who returns from the dead to fight crime as a masked vigilante. Finally, there's Valkyrie, a historical thriller starring Tom Cruise as the leader of a cadre of German army officers who plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler during World War II.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Shrykespeare is our hero. We mean that. Look to him in all of your travails at shrykespeare42@gmail.com.