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November 04, 2008

BARD'S EYE VIEW SPECIAL EDITION: James Bond, Klaatu, a Talking Dog and 10 Other Weekends of Winners

by Shrykespeare

Hello once again, and welcome to this Special Edition of Bard's Eye View. This particular week on the calendar marks the launching of what is loosely dubbed the "holiday film season," where all of the studios crank out their cold-weather best in order to score either some winter green or some spring gold (as in statuettes), or both. With the possible exception of the beginning of the summer blockbuster season (the first week in May), this may be the time of the year when the Hollywood buzz is the loudest.

And just like this past summer (as well as last winter), I have been asked by my illustrious editor to do something a little bit different to mark this auspicious occasion: Namely, I'll be giving you my personal picks for Box Office (Top 5) and PTA champion for each of the 13 weekends spanning November, December and January. I can only hope that my batting average improves over last winter, where I vastly underestimated Alvin and the Chipmunks and grossly overestimated The Golden Compass. It's not an exact science, but don't you feel personally slighted when a film just totally ignores your expectations?

Before I give you the rundown for winter, however, I would like to take this opportunity to make a Special Announcement: If you have been reading my column or hanging around Fantasy Moguls for a while, then you've probably heard me mention the Super Leagues once or three hundred times. The first full year of competition is drawing to a close, and I am pleased to announce that registration has started for next year's tournaments. The two brand-new Full-Year and Half-Year tournaments will commence at the beginning of January, so that gives you just under two months to decide whether you want to be part of the biggest damn thing Fantasy Moguls has to offer.

All you have to do is read the blog entry (at the bottom of the main page) at The Latest Movie Reviews (where it says "Super League Registration"), which outlines the rules and format of the tournament, including some changes that may be in the wind for 2009. If you register, please weigh in with your opinion on these possible changes. Or, you can get the same information on the Fantasy Moguls Message Boards, after which you can simply send me an e-mail at Shrykespeare42@gmail.com. We had 100 entries in the 2nd-half tournaments of 2008, but I just know we can beat that number this time around!

And now, without any further ado, let's cull the wheat from the chaff and highlight the best and the biggest of what this winter season has to offer.

WEEKEND 1 — Nov. 7-9
A crowded weekend, to be sure. High School Musical 3: Senior Year and Saw V should be dying down, which could very well leave room for Role Models and Soul Men to crack the Top 5, but it's nigh-impossible not to go with Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa as the money champ for this opening week. The latest outing from DreamWorks could pull well over $50 million on its opening weekend, en route to a possible $175 million overall. For PTA, there are a plethora of limited-release features coming out, and though Alex and Co. could top in this category as well, I'm going to give the nod to The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, about which I've heard many good things.

WEEKEND 2 — Nov. 14-16
Again, picking a winner on this weekend is like shooting fish in a barrel. Casino Royale cemented Daniel Craig as THE Bond guy for years to come, so obviously Quantum of Solace will lead the pack here. If it can pull over $40 million in its first three days (which I think would be a Bond record), it could be well on its way to beating the Royale total take of $167 million. For PTA, A Christmas Tale looks very promising, but I've heard such stellar things about Slumdog Millionaire that it's tough not to pick it as the winner in that category.

Bolt

WEEKEND 3 — Nov. 21-23
This final Friday before Thanksgiving presents a bit of a quandary. On the one hand, you have Bolt, which has the tremendous benefit of being a Disney product; but then you also have Twilight, the massively-hyped teenage vampire bestseller-adaptation. Disney, at least thus far, hasn't gone all-out in promoting Bolt yet, and one wonders if Twilight will join the ranks of Cloverfield as a film that severely failed to live up to its hype. So which will win? I'll give the nod to Disney's recent track record, and pick Bolt to score a narrow victory with around $40 million. For PTA, there are no arthouse films save Nerakhoon (The Betrayal), but I can't in good conscience pick that one, so look for a possible repeat champion in Slumdog Millionaire.

WEEKEND 4 — Nov. 26-28
It's an interesting mixed bag of films being released on Turkey Day Eve… for all I know, Baz Luhrmann's historical drama Australia could open big, but nothing I've seen about it so far has blown my proverbial skirt up. Transporter 3 could open well, but not spectacularly. Therefore, I'll give the nod to the first major film of the season with a "holiday" theme, that being Four Christmases, where Reese Witherspoon and Vince Vaughn will score a narrow victory over second-week holdovers Bolt and Twilight. And honestly, if Gus Van Sant's Milk doesn't wallop all of its competition in PTA, I'm going to cry over it (heh).

WEEKEND 5 — Dec. 5-7
Here's where the picture gets a little murky. The first week of December usually represents a huge drop-off in ticket sales, so look for the Box Office winner here to claim victory with less than $20 million. Said winner could be Four Christmases again, or possibly Bolt or even Twilight if they've got tremendous legs. Punisher: War Zone will probably have enough of the comic-geek crowd to crack the Top 5. On the PTA front, even though titles like Nobel Son and Cadillac Records (which just appeared on my own radar last week) look promising, I'll give the nod to Ron Howard's Frost/Nixon.

WEEKEND 6 — Dec. 12-14
Will The Day the Earth Stood Still be this winter's The Golden Compass, or its I Am Legend? Honestly, the film looks incredibly top-heavy to me from the trailer. I love the genre and I loved the original 1951 version, but this film is setting off just about every alarm bell I have. It'll win its opening weekend, of course, with anywhere from $20 to $50 million, but all bets are off after that. Nothing Like the Holidays could bow as high as No. 2, and I'll take pity on the lame-looking Delgo and say it'll crack the Top 5 at the very bottom. PTA is a tough call: The Day the Earth Stood Still could pull a double-victory, but I look for stronger performances from a few others. Kate Winslet in The Reader looks promising in a Wednesday release, but given Philip Seymour Hoffman's current career surge, I'll tab his Catholic-priest-scandal movie Doubt as the PTA champ.

WEEKEND 7 — Dec. 19-21
The Friday before Christmas week is where the holiday season REALLY gets kicked into full gear. There are no less than FOUR films coming out with big-hit potential, which makes me think that their individual chances might be hurt by the crowded weekend. I figure that The Day the Earth Stood Still will tussle with two releases, the animated The Tale of Despereaux and the enigmatic-looking Brad Pitt vehicle The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for the No. 3-No. 5 spot. No. 2 will probably go to Jim Carrey's return to mainstream comedy (Yes Man). As for the champ? Well, if you think I'm betting against Will Smith, think again. Even though Seven Pounds is definitely going for the heartstrings rather than the adrenal gland, Mr. Sure Thing will make it twelve straight blockbusters. And as for PTA, I'll give the nod to Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino over the equally cool-looking The Wrestler.

WEEKEND 8 — Dec. 25-28
Ay caramba. If Mr. Smith, Mr. Carrey and Mr. Pitt were throwing a party after the previous week, look for Mr. Sandler to crash it on Christmas Day. Adam Sandler's streak of $100 million-plus earners, while not as noteworthy as Big Willy, should easily continue with Bedtime Stories, which looks to possibly be the most family-friendly film he's ever done. The "Aww! A puppy!" appeal of Marley & Me will factor into the mix somewhere, and I'm hoping that there's enough hype for both The Spirit and Valkyrie to make a dent in the Top 5 for at least one week. For this final weekend of 2008, the PTA victory could very well go to titles like The Class or Waltz With Bashir, but the re-teaming of Titanic lovebirds Kate Winslet and Leonard DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road is just too tantalizing to ignore.

WEEKEND 9 — Jan. 2-4
If you thought the drop-off the week after Thanksgiving was massive, well, that's nothing compared to the diminishing returns once the season of Joyeux Noel has concluded. (This is probably why there is not one single major release scheduled for this first Friday of '09.) Bedtime Stories will therefore probably repeat as the Box Office winner. And as for PTA, it's hard not to pick Daniel Craig's World War II drama Defiance, which is actually opening on New Year's Eve.

WEEKEND 10 — Jan. 9-11
January is habitually the weakest month of the year at the ticket counters. As a result, the superfluous crap that populates it is comprised usually of low-grade comedies and lower-grade horror flicks. Expectations tend to be so low that when something does come along that is a surprise, it's all the more relieving. On paper, nothing in January '09 has close to the (eventually unrealized) potential that Cloverfield did; but if there was one film this past January that was a welcome change of pace (both quality-wise and results-wise), it was Katherine Heigl's wedding-themed romantic comedy 27 Dresses. It doesn't take a great leap of logic to figure that next year's similarly-themed Bride Wars might make an equal, if not bigger, splash, given that it stars Kate Hudson and current "it" girl Anne Hathaway. It should easily outdistance Clive Barker's Hellraiser and The Unborn to take the crown. And as for PTA, well, gee, I don't know, I'll take a flyer on Yonkers Joe, I guess.

WEEKEND 11 — Jan. 16-18
Sometimes, I have to admit, the predictions that Fantasy Moguls attaches to its films stymie me completely. Some have been way overestimated, some the exact opposite. I Love You Man, a romantic comedy that Fantasy Moguls has tapped to earn $95 million, has got me completely buffaloed. I mean, seriously? Granted, it's tough to gauge the potential of a film coming out three months down the road and doesn't even have a trailer yet, but ... no. I feel more comfortable predicting victory for Notorious, the supposedly true-to-life biopic of the late rapper Christopher "Notorious B.I.G." Wallace. I Love You Man will tangle with 3-D horror flick My Bloody Valentine and Bride Wars for No. 2, and it's possible that Kevin James's Paul Blart: Mall Cop may factor into the mix somewhere, and let's not forget that Defiance is being released wide on this particular weekend. For PTA? Oh, okay, I'll go with I Love You Man. Sheesh.

WEEKEND 12 — Jan. 23-25
Journey to the Center of the Earth and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor proved that Brendan Fraser can still carry the family-adventure crowd. And while Inkheart doesn't even look THAT good, it should have enough appeal to cop top honors here. Another low-grade horror vehicle, Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, will probably take No. 2 despite the departure of Kate Beckinsale, and it's possible that Hotel for Dogs and Taken may crack the Top 5. The PTA champ I'll pick is Of Time and the City, for no other reason than I don't know how bad it probably will end up being.

WEEKEND 13 — Jan. 30-Feb. 1

Jeez, we're not done yet? Yawn. Only two films are on the docket for the final weekend of this season, Chilled in Miami and The Uninvited, so in a final act of nearly-complete indifference, I'll give the nod to Inkheart again. The final PTA victor will be ... some movie that we don't even know about yet. That's right, I'm copping out. Honestly, trying to pick a PTA champ in January is like an eleven-year-old girl asking her dad who HIS favorite Jonas Brother is.

Well, that will, mercifully, do it for me for another week. (Note to my editor: There's nothing wrong with a little variety to shake things up, but I'm glad that I only have to do this "Weekend Winners" bit twice a year. It's much easier to get jazzed in early May about the start of the summer season, I think you'll agree!) (Note from Shrykespeare's editor: I'll agree that what the aitch-ee-double-hockey-sticks are we thinking about I Love You Man? Who's in charge here, anyway?) Oh well, if there is one other thing that November signifies, it's that the last vestiges of summer have passed beyond our veil of hindsight. Here's hoping that this year's "awards" season brings more good news than last year, when we were in the throes of that whole writer's-strike-thingy.

Please return next week when I go back to my usual format, as I tackle three wide-release titles that are about as different as three films can get. Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman take to the big screen in Australia, a historical drama set against the backdrop of the bombing of the land Down Under by the Japanese in World War II; Four Christmases, a romantic comedy featuring Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon as a couple who are forced to plan separate get-together's with each of their (mildly) estranged parents; and finally, Jason Statham is back as Frank Martin, the role that first made him a bankable action star, in Transporter 3.

TTFN!

Shrykespeare and his editor should probably get out more often. But aren't you glad that they're here at Fantasy Moguls, faithfully fetch-and-carrying? Express your appreciation to shrykespeare42@gmail.com. (By the way, Shrykespeare's favorite Jonas Brother is Kevin. And he's totally counting down the days to the release of Walter the Farting Dog.)

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Comments

JackO

Tough job. I like most of your picks. However, I do think that if Defiance or Gran Torino get significant Oscar buzz, either of them could conceivably win MLK Jr. holiday weekend.

Also for the PTA picks in January, I'm looking at the holdovers from December like Revolutionary Road, The Class, and Waltz With Bashir.

Posted by: JackO | November 04, 2008 at 03:02 PM

craig

I keep looking at The Day the Earth Stood Still and thinking, If I, someone who thinks Keannu Reeves one line of dialogue in Youngblood is one of the coolest moments in cinema, who lives for horror films and Sci Fi, can't get the least bit interested in this movie, who will? And your last weekend of the year, Uninvited, take a look at the cast again. The title is great, premise looks cool, and the cast is recognizable.

Posted by: craig | November 04, 2008 at 06:58 PM

W

The thing I disagree with the most is "Hotel for Dogs" barely cracking the top 5. It will be #2, though it could take #1 (I doubt it). It's a Nick movie, and I've already seen a trailer when my kid was watching Nick, so expect at least a good first weekend for the piece of crap it'll be.

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