If you have been playing Fantasy Moguls long enough, then you know by now that those films are not necessarily the ones you must grab. You can end up expecting too much out of them if they are assigned an expensive price tag, or they can simply disappoint at the box-office. Sometimes your bitterness is alleviated when you end up seeing the film and finding it remarkable (I enjoyed Youth Without Youth, even if nobody else did). And sometimes you are even more mad because the film that blew up your slate ends up not even being that good (I'm Not There — well, I should have read the subtext of that title!).

Why the heck am I boring you with these thoughts, you must be asking yourself. Well, it happens that this week, Dances With the Arthouse features a film that almost perfectly fit the description of a film you would instinctively want to put in your studio, and of course run to see in theaters. It's that obvious, and yet it still necessitates a few minutes of reflection. But before discussing that movie, let's take a close look at Nerakhoon (The Betrayal), opening next week on Nov. 21.

In the eighties, Ellen Kuras met a man named Thavisouk Prasavath, a refugee from Laos living in Brooklyn. His family had moved from Southeast Asia after the fall of an American-friendly regime to Communists. Prasavath's father was working with the CIA, and his family quickly became persona non grata in the new Laos. The father was sent to a re-education camp and the mother ran away to seek asylum with most of her children in the United States. She unpacked (so to speak) in Brooklyn, where she discovered that the American Dream was not exactly how she had envisoned it.

Upon meeting Prasavath, Kuras decided to make a documentary out of this family's story. It took years. Decades. Kuras built a career of director of photography, working with Spike Lee, Rebecca Miller and Michel Gondry, while she and Prasavath — her protagonist, but also her co-director, co-writer and editor — worked on Nerakhoon. The film, as you may guess, is the work of a lifetime, a long journey in the life of a family, that started being shown in festivals at the beginning of 2008, starting with Sundance. It then went everywhere from Berlin in February, to London last month, getting a great response every time, especially from reviewers.

With a very small distributor (Cinema Guild), Nerakhoon is not the kind of documentary that will make even little waves at the box-office. With a New York City-only launch on Nov. 21, though, it could take advantage of the lack of competition on the arthouse front that week to score a few PTA points, in addition to what should be a solid IMDb User Rating in the high 7's. For a dollar more in November-January Ultimate Movie Moguls leagues, you can get Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino, and there's really no comparison between what the two films have to offer. If you like to gamble, however, there is an interesting, if short, window open for Nerakhoon.

OK, now for our Handle Me with Care speicl. A film that is absolutely certain to make a lot of noise this winter season, to get a lot of fans, a few haters, a lot of great reviews, many awards and be mentioned on a lot of year-end best movies lists. Milk. This one marks the return of Gus Van Sant to a more "mainstream" cinema after Gerry, Elephant, Last Days and Paranoid Park, which where all more experimental. It was for better in some cases (Gerry), for worse in others (Last Days), and produced excellence in the case of Elephant. Most viewers have gotten used to the new, more arty Van Sant, a man who's returned to his '80s roots, after what might even be called his "Hollywood period" (To Die For, Good Will Hunting, Psycho, Finding Forrester).

Despite the flashy aspects of Milk by comparison to recent Van Sant fare, however, it would not be correct to categorize the film strictly as a return to the director's "Hollywood period." After all, this is "just" a $15 million (that's a blockbuster budget in Europe, folks) Focus Features film about Harvey Milk, the first openly gay man elected to a public office, in San Francisco in 1977. Milk was murdered only a few months after his political victory.

I am genuinely convinced that Milk is going to be a big success this winter. It is going to have great reviews and strong PTA numbers in the first few weeks of its release. It is going to accumulate more money than all of the last four Van Sant movies combined, and end up collecting a few awards, notably acting awards. The film's strongest asset is probably its star-studded cast. Sean Penn, one of the most intense actors in American cinema, is headlining the film as the titular character, in what looks to be another mesmerizing performance.

Penn is surrounded by a bunch of actors who are not only good at their job, but also very hyped of late. Josh Brolin, fresh off his little seen but widely admired portrayal of George W. Bush; James Franco, who received the best reviews of his career as the comic drug dealer of Pineapple Express last summer; and Emile Hirsch, who may have starred in the biggest flop of the summer (the fun Speed Racer), but whose strong and sadly overlooked (especially by Oscar voters) performance in Into the Wild (directed by Penn) is still vivid in many people's minds.

The first reviews coming out of the San Francisco special screening that was held a few weeks ago have all been positive, notably praising Penn's performance, placing him as a strong contender in the Best Actor Oscar race, four years after his win for Mystic River. It seems clear that the question to ask about Milk is not "Will it be an arthouse success?" but rather "How big a success will it be?" Will it be enough to justify spending either $27 in November-January Ultimate leagues, or $14 in Box Office Moguls leagues? Hard to say.

Scheduled to open in Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco on Nov. 26, Milk is almost a lock for 5 PTA points on opening weekend, and probably at least 4 more the following weekend. It could grab a couple more on the weekend of Dec. 12, so FM's 11 PTA points prediction seems spot on for me. The big question concerns the box-office potential of the R-rated drama. Will it ever crack the Top 5, as Fantasy Moguls predicts? Given how crowded the second half of December is in terms of wide releases, it seems doubtful to me. The film would have to benefit from a really wide expansion, or grab those points as soon as the weekend of Dec. 12, when there won't be many films widely released yet. If Focus expands it wide at that time, then yes, it could grab two or three top 5 points. Later on, it will be too late.

As for the box-office prospects of the film, there is a part of me that thinks that the recent election of Barack Obama, the wave of enthusiasm for politics it raised, the symbolism of the election of a black man in the White House, and the questions surrounding his safety — all those factors could help grow the interest of the American audiences towards this story of a gay man elected against all odds, only to find himself been assassinated. (I am not implying, of course,  that Obama will experience the same fate ...)

Fantasy Moguls predicts $55 million in box-office receipts. Some might see this as optimism. Of course, no one would be really surprised if the film only gathered $20 million or $30 million, and that would not be a bad result. Maybe it is because Milk ranks high on my "Want to see!" list, but I am one of those who think Gus Van Sant's film could reach a surprisingly high box-office number, even high enough to justify the risk of spending either $27 (in Ultimate) or $14 (in Box Office). Or maybe it is just because I am a naive European who still has a few things to learn about American audiences. If Brokeback Mountain managed to collect $83 million, however, then why not Milk?

And ... cut! Thank you for coming and reading those lines, ladies and gentlemen! I'm way past my bedtime, so I shall set our next rendezvous for next week, when I will be discussing politics once again, this time as seen through the eyes of Ron Howard. (Well, we can't get Gus Van Sant every week, we have to lower our standards once in a while. Sorry, Ron.) Otherwise, I was thinking ... well, now that I've seen Quantum of Solace ... Nah, just kidding! I won't spoil it for you. Who do you think I am?

Indie Jones was about to reveal that James Bond sleeps with a beautiful woman in Quantum of Solace, but then he thought better of it. (Although, who knew that Bond was a Beatles guy?) Send him your own reactions to "Bond 22" at danceswiththearthouse@gmail.com.