As the wise Shrykespeare pointed out in his own Special Edition of Bard's Eye View, let's hope I can advise you better than I did last year, when my enlightened insistence on Persepolis and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly did not hide my unperceptive trust of Youth Without Youth and I'm Not There. I will be starting today with 10 films with the most potential for Ultimate Movie Moguls players this winter, either thanks to their price or because of their cinematic standing in the arthouse world. After that, I will point out five other films that have a shot to be profitable at the box office, and not just pad your PTA and IMDb User Rating. These films could add some surprise pop to your Box Office Moguls slate, in addition to being Ultimate studs. So turn off the sound of TV yelling at you who's the new President of the United States — it's Barack Obama — and give me a few minutes of your precious time.

TEN FILMS THAT MIGHT MAKE YOUR ULTIMATE MOVIE MOGULS SLATE LOOK GOOD

The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Nov. 7)
Ultimate: $9
Box Office: $2
It is commonly said not to trust a film's success in Europe: Success overseas is no guarantee that U.S. audiences will embrace the film the way European (or other) audiences have. So take it with a grain that the United Kingdom and Spain have already made Mark Herman's Holocaust drama a success. That said, with a 16-theater launch by Miramax on Nov. 7, this examination of concentration camps through the friendship between a Nazi's son and a young detainee should not find critics and audiences unreceptive. With little serious competition on opening weekend (after all, JCVD is not included in any Moguls seasons), you can wear these Pajamas with confidence.

Slumdog Millionaire (Nov. 12)
Ultimate: $24
Box Office: $5
Has my opinion changed since last's week Dances With the Arthouse about Danny Boyle's latest feature? Well, since then, like all of you, I have finally discovered the trailer of the film, which looks very attractive. I still believe Slumdog will charm many film buffs, and collect quite a few PTA points over the month of November. It's got a ton of Oscar buzz (though that can change in a hurry) and it should deliver stronger box-office numbers than Boyle's usuals, and stronger than most films featuring only Indian actors do. And yet ... I still think the Ultimate price tag is a tad too high for the film to show up on any of my own slates. Proceed with caution.

A Christmas Tale (Nov. 14)
Ultimate: $12
Box Office: $2
Every year a couple of well-reputed French films get a crack at America's arthouse theaters during the holiday hubbub. This is one of them, a film I mentioned in my previous column to let you know it will no doubt collect a few PTA points in coming weeks. It will battle Slumdog Millionaire and James Bond for the PTA crown on opening weekend, but with a single location, it should generate strong numbers. And there's nothing to compete with over the following two weeks except for Milk. This family reunion drama, a Cannes Film Festival winner (not the Golden Palm though ...) starring Catherine Deneuve and Quantum of Solace villain Mathieu Amalric, will attract New York cinephiles en masse.

The Dukes (Nov. 14)
Ultimate: $5
Box 0ffice: $2
Nov. 14 will be an essential date for limited releases. Not because the "biggest small films" are coming out that day — the really big guns, except maybe for Slumdog Millionaire, will still be a ways off — but because it's the only weekend that offers new films much space to garner word of mouth and collect PTA points. Indeed, the two following weekends, Nov. 21-23 and Nov. 26-30, will only witness the arrival of one other limited release, Milk. It means the small films with great reviews will have a window to make a name for themselves, and The Dukes, Robert Davi's first venture behind the camera, looks like it could be one of those films. For November-January, Fantasy Moguls has given it a lighter and wiser $5 price tag. With its charming retro look, the film enchanted audiences and juries in its festival tour and is little by little casting its spell on American critics. Scheduled to bow in just six theaters on opening weekend, The Dukes will probably offer its owners an excellent User Rating. It won't make you rich, but if film reviews have any influence, this is the kind of film that will prove it.

Rab ne Bana di Jodi (Dec. 12)
Ultimate and Box Office: $2
Since many of the films presented in this column are not very cheap, I thought maybe I should include a film that will not monopolize a large part of your budget. In fact, one that will go almost entirely unnoticed on your budget. And what better way to spend $2 than on a Bollywood film that will guarantee you a very decent User Rating and could end up bringing you one unexpected PTA point? This is the new film directed by Aditya Chopra, whose last film was Mohabbatein, starring superstar Shah Rukh Khan, who is still here, surrounded by some of the most famous and beautiful Indian actresses: Preity Zinta, Rani Mukherjee and Kajol. Bollywood fans will be present on opening weekend.

The Reader (Dec. 10)
Ultimate: $18
Box Office: $3
The Weinstein Company has not been in great shape lately. The brothers have undeniably lost their touch, and are desperately looking for the film that will put them back in the game. Originally, their winter slate was full of films, with the likes of Fanboys, Killshot, The Road, Crossing Over and Shanghai waiting in the wings. Harvey and Bob have suddenly decided to postpone all those titles, however, and focus on just one film, Stephen Daldry's return behind the camera six years after The Hours. Through the taboo relationship between a woman and a young man more than 10 years her junior, The Reader depicts the trauma of post-World War II Germany, where the film takes place.The Weinsteins are going to put all their money into positioning and promoting this film, with Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes, for the Oscars. They will carefully orchestrate the release. The film will gradually expand until Jan. 9, when The Reader should go wide.

Doubt (Dec. 12)
Ultimate: $18
Box Office: $2
It would have been hard to believe, a few years ago, that John Patrick Shanley would direct one of the season's most awaited films. Shanley has been on an 18 years hiatus from feature directing, ever since his first and (up until now) only film, Joe Versus the Volcano. Yet Doubt is undeniably one of the true events of December. Adapted from his Pulitzer Prize-winning play, Doubt examines the conflict between a nun and a priest who's become suspected of child molestation in 1960s America. The Academy loves adaptations of critically lauded source material, and this one definitely has street cred. And you know what the Academy loves even more? Actors they've already recognized in the past, such as Academy Award winners Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman, and nominee Amy Adams. Miramax is distributing in platform release. A possible PTA juggernaut if reviews are as good as expected.

The Class (Dec. 25)
Ultimate: $16
Box Office: $2
Speaking of possible PTA juggernauts: Last year, American cinephiles embraced Persepolis all the way through the Oscars. The film was France's official submission for the Best Foreign Film Oscar, it won a prize at Cannes, and was released on Dec. 25. The profile of The Class looks strangely similar. It is France's submission to the Oscars, will be released on Christmas Day and is being distributed by Sony Pictures Classics, just as Persepolis was. Oh, and another tiny little detail, the film won the coveted Golden Palm at last May's Cannes Film Festival, the first French film to do so in 21 years. It is a pure auteur film, an almost documentary look into a junior high classroom in a popular Parisian district. An excellent film that will garner fantastic reviews. And PTA points. Lots of them, if you ask me. Since I started with Persepolis's similarities ... do you want to know how many PTA points Persepolis won last year?  21. No further comment, your honor.

Waltz with Bashir (Dec. 26)
Ultimate: $16
Box Office: $2
Contrary to The Weinstein Company, Sony Pictures Classics is not afraid of accumulating films this December, as Sony's specialty division opens a second film that same week. A second film that also won rave reviews at Cannes last spring (although it did not win anything), and one that is Israel's official submission for the Oscars. Strangely, this film also bears evident similarities to Persepolis, as Waltz with Bashir is a very political animated feature, although this one has the very rare particularity of being an animated documentary. One with spectacular visuals that will hypnotize animation fans. I picture Bashir and The Class ruling the PTA top during the month of January, keeping it limited while American films will expand wider.

Of Time and the City (Jan. 21)
Ultimate: $6
Box Office: $2
The month of January traditionally does not have much to offer to arthouse fans. The 2009 vintage should not be any different, with most PTA leaders promising to be the December holdovers lifted by awards buzz. One film, though, might end up being interesting for Fantasy Moguls players, and that film is Of Time and the City, a documentary exploring the streets and history of Liverpool by Terence Davies. The film was premiered last May at the Cannes Film Festival to some excellent reviews.

And with that, we come to ...

FIVE FILMS THAT WILL FLOAT YOUR BOAT IN ULTIMATE AND BOX OFFICE LEAGUES

Milk (Nov. 26)
Ultimate: $27
Box 0ffice: $14
Gus Van Sant seemed to have lost a bit of his mojo with films like Last Days and Paranoid Park, wandering in a commercial wasteland of experimentation. Milk looks like it could be his big comeback, tackling a delicate theme that we imagine is close to his heart (the fate of gay activist and politican Harvey Milk in San Francisco in the '70s). Van Sant has worked in the cinematic mainstream before, and this one seems poised to take his career back in that direction, with real dramatic intensity and famous actors (Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Emile Hirsch, James Franco). From the first reviews that can be read, and the images seen (what a beautiful trailer!), Milk looks like an astounding success on the verge of collecting year-end prizes and probably seducing audiences. It might be a bit short on Top 5 points, but you'll have lots of other successes to compensation for that in Ultimate, and it could be a slow, steady burner for you in Box Office.

Gran Torino (Dec. 17)
Ultimate: $10
Box Office: $9
Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima might have ended up underwhelming at the box office, but those two masterfully executed films about war must not hide this: Clint Eastwood's name is one of the most iconic and powerful in the public's eye, both among cinephiles and for mainstream audiences. I know the trailer for Gran Torino surprised many (I love it, personally), but Eastwood really is a director you can't judge before seeing his films. Back in front of the camera as an angry old man who sees his neighborhood falling under the control of street gangs, Eastwood is doing something, possibly for the last time, that fans have loved him for since before I was born. He can pull out a success even when you don't expect it. For the moment, no one has seen Gran Torino, and many were disappointed by Changeling. Despite lukewarm reviews, the Angelina Jolie starrer collected 6 PTA points, 2 Top 5, and $10 million in two weekends. I trust Clint to surprise us with Gran Torino ... in a good way.

The Wrestler (Dec. 17)
Ultimate: $21
Box Office: $5
Before it was presented at the Venice Film festival last September, I would not have bet on The Wrestler, a dry film about a ... wrestler, aging, tired, who tries a comeback at age 50. Simply put, the reviews and word of mouth, both terrific, have thrown the buzz through the roof on this one, bringing it the Golden Lion and positioning Mickey Rourke as a strong contender, almost a favorite, in the Best Actor Race at the Oscars. An unexpected career turn for Darren Aronofksy after the metaphysical musings of The Fountain. The reputation of this film is so high that I have absolutely no doubt it will garner tons of PTA points and one of the season's strongest User Rating scores. The question is, will it find an audience beyond cinephiles? I believe it can.

Revolutionary Road (Dec. 26)
Ultimate: $19
Box Office: $6
Sam Mendes's latest is an intimate look into the life of a couple in 1950s America. The fact that this film marks the reunion in front of the camera of the famous lovers from James Cameron's Titanic — Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet — may help attract a wider audience than such a drama normally would draw. The very theme and setting of the film make it more of a cinephile dream, or at least a curiosity. After all, despite his detractors, Mendes is one of the most interesting contemporary filmmakers of mainstream American cinema (although he is British), and DiCaprio and Winslet are two of the most gifted actors of their generation. Many hope this will make sparkles onscreen. Don't expect the box-office clout of Mendes's previous films (American Beauty, Road to Perdition, Jarhead) but it should manage better than most arthouse pictures of the season, thanks to the star power.

Defiance (Dec. 31)
Ultimate: $20
Box Office: $9
Pushed back to the last day of the year after being scheduled for the beginning of December, Defiance could be a real test for Daniel Craig's popularity outside of Bond's tuxedo. Sincetaking over from Pierce Brosnan as 007, he's appeared in two flops that can't really be attributed to him (The Invasion and The Golden Compass, which was a success overseas). This one does not look like it will fail, though. Edward Zwick, while not the most fascinating director in American cinema, is a strong filmmaker who knows how to make solid films audiences like. This World War II story about three Jewish brothers saving the lives of thousands in Nazi-occupied Poland mixes drama, history and adventure. It will open limited on New Year's Eve before expanding on Jan. 16. Two weekends to collect PTA points, followed by a potentially strong  Top 5 and box office sprint to the end of the season.

That should make for an interesting season. What would it have been if Steven Soderbergh's Che had been included on Fantasy Moguls?! I have been babbling long enough for this week, despite my disappointment in the last-minute absence of Gong Li's Shanghai, which the Chinese actress probably illuminates with her beauty. (Yes! I can go to bed happy, I managed to mention her.) Rendezvous next week!

Indie Jones and Clint Eastwood are brothers. No, not really. But they're like brothers. Brothers in cinema. Brothers in art. Confess your own brotherhoods to danceswiththearthouse@gmail.com.