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November 14, 2008

WEEKEND ESTIMATES: 'Quantum' Is Biggest Bond Ever with $70.4M Opening and $700M Worldwide Possible!; 'Escape 2 Africa' w/$36.1M and May Be Biggest Non-'Shrek' Title from DreamWorks Animation; 'Slumdog' Is Likely PTA Winner After Besting Bond!

by Steve Mason

Steve Mason is now on Facebook.

SUNDAY 12:00 p.m. (Pacific): The audacious reboot of the James Bond franchise paid off big with 2006's Casino Royale, and now Quantum of Solace (Sony) has hit an even bigger box-office jackpot. Whereas Daniel Craig's 007 debut opened with $40.8 million, the new Bond, which picks up where Royale left off, will better that mark by almost $30 million, with $70.4 million at U.S. theaters. That is a 72 percent increase. In fact, Quantum of Solace has opened about 50 percent better than the previous biggest Bond opening, Pierce Brosnan in Die Another Day in 2002, which started with $47.1 million.

Sources are telling me that weekend audiences in the U.S. for Quantum were 54 percent male and 46 percent female, and the franchise skewed a bit old with 58 percent of ticket buyers over 25. The word-of-mouth will be very good for this excellent film and, for my money, Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace are the two best James Bond films ever. As I wrote on Thursday, these two movies are to the Bond franchise, what Batman Begins and The Dark Knight turned out to be for the Batman franchise.

Quantum of Solace began opening in overseas territories on Oct. 31. Now, including its meteoric domestic opening, the film has banked $322 million from 73 territorie. And that's with openings still to come in lucrative territories like Japan, Australia and Spain. In my estimation, the newest Bond will easily be the biggest 007 ever. It should become the first movie in the franchise to top $200 million domestic, and $700 million worldwide would seem to be a reasonable target.

Meanwhile Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) received a hippo-sized boost from its $8.1 million Friday, more than doubling that number for a $16.9 million Saturday. After adding a projected $11.1 million Sunday, Escape 2 Africa will have a new 10-day cume of $118 million, ranking as the all-time fourth-best 10-day total for a non-summer animated film opening on a non-holiday. Amazingly, M:E2A has a better domestic total after 10 days than this summer's DreamWorks Animation smash Kung Fu Panda, which checked in with $117.2 million at the same point in its release cycle. There is no question now that Escape 2 Africa will finish as the all-time biggest grossing non-Shrek movie in the history of Dreamorks Animation, and $220 million-$225 million domestic is possible.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $70.4 million, $20,400 PTA, $70.4 million cume
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $36.1 million, $8,888 PTA, $118 million cume
3. Role Models (Universal) — $11.7 million, $4,185 PTA, $38.1 million cume
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $5.87 million, $1,836 PTA, $84.3 million cume
5. Changeling (Universal) — $4.24 million, $2,240 PTA, $27.6 million cume
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $3.2 million, $1,448 PTA, $26.5 million cume
7. Soul Men (MGM) — $2.42 million, $1,186 PTA, $9.14 million cume
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.4 million, $1,186 PTA, $33.6 million cume
9. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $1.79 million, $894 PTA, $55.4 million cume
10. The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle Releasing) — $1.64 million, $1,039 PTA, $12.6 million cume
11. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $1.53 million, $951 PTA, $90.8 million cume
12. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.53 million, $1,267 PTA, $98.8 million cume
* The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Miramax) — $490,000, $12,895 PTA, $843,000 cume
* NEW Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) — $350,000, $35,000 PTA, $350,000 cume
* NEW A Christmas Tale (IFC) — $65,400, $9,343 PTA, $65,400 cume

SATURDAY 12:00 p.m. (Pacific): My Friday night projection of $27 million for Quantum of Solace (Sony) was dead on, and I am sticking with $71.55 million as my weekend number. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) came in at $8.1 million for its second Friday, lower than the $8.7 million I projected last night.

My revised three-day number for M:E2A is $33.2 million, which is very good, but that would represent a 47 percent dip from last weekend's meteoric $61 million start. One dynamic to watch today is the effect of those 840 or so sneak previews of Bolt (Disney), many in 3D. That could conceivably take a bite out of the Saturday number for Escape 2 Africa, and it will definitely boost Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney). After managing just $295,000 on Friday, the long-running Chihuahua could finish the frame with as much as $2.36 million.

Even with the lower projection for Escape 2 Africa, its 10-day cume would still be a spectacular $115 million. That would give it the all-time fourth-best opening 10 days for an animated movie not released in the summer or a holiday weekend:

ALL-TIME TOP 10 TEN 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED NON-SUMMER/NON-HOLIDAY RELEASES
1. The Incredibles — $143.2 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $115.75 million
3. Monsters, Inc. — $122.1 million
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa — $115 million (Projected)
5. Shark Tale — $87.3 million
6. Ice Age — $87.2 million
7. Horton Hears A Who — $86 million
8. Happy Feet — $99.2 million
9. Chicken Little — $80.4 million
10. Bee Movie — $71.7 million

DreamWorks has to be thrilled. After two weekends, Madagascar 2 will be up 60 percent from where last November's Bee Movie was at the same point. M:E2A's 10-day gross is also up 15 percent from that of the original Madagascar, which had banked $100.3 million after 10 days, and that was a Memorial Day release. With Thanksgiving coming up, I am now more certain than ever that Escape 2 Africa will become the all-time biggest non-Shrek movie from DreamWorks Animation.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $27 million, $7,824 PTA, $27 million cume
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $8.1 million, $1,993 PTA, $89.9 million cume
3. Role Models (Universal) — $3.76 million, $1,345 PTA, $30.1 million cume
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $1.32 million, $414 PTA, $79.8 million cume
5. Changeling (Universal) — $1.23 million, $650 PTA, $24.6 million cume
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $1.07 million, $484 PTA, $24.3 million cume
7. Soul Men (MGM) — $690,000, $337 PTA, $7.7 million cume
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $655,000, $452 PTA, $31.9 million cume
9. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $565,000, $282 PTA, $54.1 million cume
10. The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) — $500,000, $315 PTA, $11.5 million cume
11. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $465,000, $383 PTA, $97.7 million cume
12. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $295,000, $182 PTA, $89.5 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $71.55 million, $20,733 PTA, $71.55 million cume
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $33.21 million, $8,170 PTA, $115 million cume
3. Role Models (Universal) — $11.1 million, $3,967 PTA, $37.5 million cume
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $4.77 million, $1,490 PTA, $83.2 million cume
5. Changeling (Universal) — $4.22 million, $2,229 PTA, $27.6 million cume
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $3.26 million, $1,477 PTA, $26.5 million cume
7. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $2.36 million, $1,459 PTA, $91.6 million cume
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.33 million, $1,609 PTA, $33.6 million cume
9. Soul Men (MGM) — $2.17 million, $1,061 PTA, $9.1 million cume
10. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $1.72 million, $861 PTA, $55.3 million cume
11. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.53 million, $1,264 PTA, $98.8 million cume
12. The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) — $1.5 million, $945 PTA, $12.5 million cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): Craig ... Daniel Craig. The actor is now responsible for the biggest James Bond opening ever, as Quantum of Solace (Sony) has followed spectacular overseas openings with a monstrous $27 million opening day in the U.S. That is about 30 percent better than the previous best single day for a Bond film:

ALL-TIME BEST SINGLE DAY GROSSES FOR THE 007 FRANCHISE
1. Friday, Nov. 14, 2008 — Quantum of Solace, $27 million (Estimated)
2. Saturday, Nov. 23, 2002 — Die Another Day, $19 million
3. Friday, Nov. 22, 2002 — Die Another Day, $16.6 million
4. Saturday, Nov. 18, 2006 — Casino Royale, $15.4 million
5. Friday, Nov. 17, 2006 — Casino Royale, $14.7 million

That will possibly translate to a $71.5 million opening weekend, 75 percent better than Craig's first outing, 2006's Casino Royale ($40.8 million), and up 52 percent from the all-time best Bond opening, 2002's Die Another Day ($47 million opening).

Sony’s decision to reboot the 007 franchise, after Pierce Brosnan's Die Another Day became the biggest Bond movie ever with $167 million domestic, was aggressive and inspired. Screenwriters Neal Purvis and Robert Wade, and then, later, Oscar winner Paul Haggis (Crash) faithfully adapted Ian Fleming's 1953 novel Casino Royale and the quickly-approaching-50 Brosnan got the hint and "stepped down" from the role. The filmmakers wanted a younger, tougher, grittier 007 instead of the lightweight, foppish version of the character created by the former Remington Steele star.

Daniel Craig formally accepted the Bond "crown" at an October 2005 press conference and Martin Campbell signed on to direct, and the result was a reinvention of the franchise. Not everyone loved the idea. In fact, a pro-Brosnan website called DanielCraigisnotBond.com was started as a means to protest, and it is online to this day. The proprietors of this website may be responsible for the most misguided and ineffective boycott in the history of entertainment.

As I wrote Thursday, I believe that Quantum of Solace will be the first James Bond film to crack $200 million domestic, and the worldwide box office could reach a staggering $700 million. This film will have no competition for adult audiences next weekend, with only Bolt and Twilight opening, and Quantum is almost certain to demonstrate excellent "playability" well past Thanksgiving.

Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) has started its second weekend solidly with an estimated $8.7 million Friday, and it will likely reach $35.6 million for the three-day. That would make for a 10-day cume of $117.5 million, and M:E2A has a real chance at becoming the biggest-grossing non-Shrek movie in DreamWorks Animation history.

David Wain's Role Models (Universal) is holding well, adding $3.65 million Friday. The R-rated comedy has a shot at $10.77 million or so, representing just a 44 percent drop, which will be enough for third place for the frame. Clint Eastwood's Changeling (Universal) is a probable fourth with almost $5.5 million by Monday morning and a new cume of $28.8 million. I expect High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) to round out the Top 5 with just under $4.5 million for the weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $27 million, $7,824 PTA, $27 million cume
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $8.7 million, $2,140 PTA, $90.5 million cume
3. Role Models (Universal) — $3.65 million, $1,306 PTA, $30 million cume
4. Changeling (Universal) — $1.6 million, $844 PTA, $24.9 million cume
5. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $1.28 million, $579 PTA, $24.5 million cume
6. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $1.23 million, $387 PTA, $79.7 million cume
7. Soul Men (MGM) — $863,000, $421 PTA, $7.8 million cume
8. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $750,000, $375 PTA, $54.3 million cume
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $675,000, $466 PTA, $31.9 million cume
10. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $580,000, $478 PTA, $97.8 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $71.5 million, $20,733 PTA, $71.5 million cume
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $35.6 million, $8,775 PTA, $117.5 million cume
3. Role Models (Universal) — $10.77 million, $3,853 PTA, $37.2 million cume
4. Changeling (Universal) — $5.48 million, $2,895 PTA, $28.8 million cume
5. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $4.45 million, $1,393 PTA, $82.9 million cume
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $3.9 million, $1,767 PTA, $27.2 million cume
7. Soul Men (MGM) — $2.71 million, $1,327 PTA, $9.7 million cume
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.4 million, $1,658 PTA, $33.6 million cume
9. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $2.28 million, $1,143 PTA, $55.9 million cume
10. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.91 million, $1,577 PTA, $99.1 million cume

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Posted at 10:06 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

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Comments

abhi4shek

Wow, MAD2's thursday to friday jump is 335%. That's huge for a movie that opened to big numbers.

QOS needs a multiplier of 2.59 to break 70 million this weekend.

Incredible Hulk managed 2.588. QOS should easily touch that I guess.

Posted by: abhi4shek | November 14, 2008 at 10:38 PM

abhi4shek

soul men....85% drop! from 19 to 2.7...

phew...so universal's hell boy 2 release, one week before 'another superhero movie', and disney's great narnia sandwich between iron man and indiana jones, are not the worst studio release strategies of 2008...

(...maybe they are...at least soul men was cheap to make)

Posted by: abhi4shek | November 14, 2008 at 10:56 PM

abhi4shek

sorry....a huge, huge blunder by me.....mistaking role models and soul man...

I didn't even have anything to drink!!!

Steve Mason and the website viewers....Sorry for the Spam, sincerely.

Abhishek

Posted by: abhi4shek | November 14, 2008 at 10:59 PM

J.I.

Wow. A $70+ million opening weekend for a franchise that consistantly opens in the $40 million range. Its like a mini-Dark Knight.

Posted by: J.I. | November 15, 2008 at 07:41 AM

joseap84

Steve Mason:

the "ALL-TIME BEST SINGLE DAY GROSSES FOR THE 007 FRANCHISE" chart at the beginning Casino Royale in 4th and 5th place for two different dates yet both are stated as "Friday"

Posted by: joseap84 | November 15, 2008 at 09:01 AM

salva

Madagascar 2 had a better Tuesday with 9 million.

Posted by: salva | November 15, 2008 at 04:05 PM

J.I.

Steve, can you explain to me how Bolt's sneak preview showing will help Beverly Hills Chihuahua? Maybe I'm missing something.

Posted by: J.I. | November 15, 2008 at 08:39 PM

Ian

All the money Bolt makes will be added to Chihuahua's weekend gross.

Posted by: Ian | November 15, 2008 at 09:10 PM

Squirrel

JI:

Sneak previews are not counted towards the previewed-film's gross; they are counted towards another film from the same studio. In this case, theaters are cancelling a 7:00 showing of Beverly Hills in order to show Bolt, and the money Bolt makes is counted towards Beverly Hills' box office total. So, yes, Bolt WILL help Beverly Hills.

Think of it like a kid sneaking into an R-rated movie; instead of buying a ticket for Saw V, a kid will buy a ticket for High School Musical. Therefore, Saw boosted HSM's numbers a bit and "helped" it.

Posted by: Squirrel | November 15, 2008 at 09:10 PM

JT

Yeah. I technically saw Pirates 3 twice last year because I went to an early sneak peek to see Ratatouille.

Good to see QoS succeeding despite the name, which was a turnoff for more people than you might think. I'm pissed that Madagascar 2 might beat Wall-E for the best animated gross of the year, though.

Posted by: JT | November 16, 2008 at 08:10 AM

salva

So what atleast Wall-E will win an oscar for best animated movie

Posted by: salva | November 17, 2008 at 02:44 PM

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