Meanwhile Role Models (Universal), which was expected to be in the low teens according to industry tracking, is a surprise hit. David Wain, who has written and directed 2001's cult favorite Wet Hot American Summer, was a writer/performer on the long-running MTV sketch comedy series The State (he alsoo-wrote and directed the indie release The Ten in 2007). Wain will be a hot property after Role Models surged to a $19.21 million opening weekend.

High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney), Changeling (Universal) and Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) wind up as the third-, fourth- and fifth-place films for the weekend, at figures almost exactly where I projected them to be on Friday night. The Samuel L. Jackson-Bernie Mac comedy combo couldn't lift Soul Men (MGM) any higher than No. 6, where it strikes a mildly sour note with an estimated $5.62 million.

STUDIO 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $63.5 million, $15,656 PTA, $63.5 million cume
2. NEW Role Models (Universal) — $19.25 million, $6,895 PTA, $19.25 million cume
3. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $9.29 million, $2,683 PTA, $75.7 million cume
4. Changeling (Universal) — $7.28 million, $3,925 PTA, $20.6 million cume
5. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $6.52 million, $2,384 PTA, $20.93 million cume
6. NEW Soul Men (MGM) — $5.61 million, $2,745PTA, $5.61 million cume
7. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $4.2 million, $1,485 PTA, $52.3 million cume
8. The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) — $3.49 million, $1,355 PTA, $10.23 million cume
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $3.12 million, $2,110 PTA, $29.9 million cume
10. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $2.59 million, $1,844 PTA, $96.4 million cume
* Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) — $1.68 million, $4,240 PTA, $5.56 million cume
* Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) — $439,000, $4,304 PTA, $1.28 million cume
* NEW House (Roadside Attractions) — $355,000, $978 PTA, $355,000 cume
* Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics) — $315,000, $9,265 PTA, $697,000 cume
* NEW The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Miramax) — $255,000, $15,000 PTA, $255,000 cume
* I've Loved You So Long (Sony Classics) — $188,000, $8,545 PTA, $745,000 cume
* NEW Repo: The Genetic Opera (Lionsgate) — $51,600, $6,450 PTA, $51,600 cume

FRIDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): Last November, DreamWorks scored a solid hit with Bee Movie, which buzzed to an opening weekend take of $38 million and finished with $126.6 million domestic. This year's autumnal offering from Jeffrey Katzenberg's animation house is much, much bigger. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa is a true blockbuster with a $17 million opening day and a likely $57.8 million opening weekend.

Reviews are solid (59 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), the playing field is wide open for two weeks, with only Quantum of Solace (Sony) opening next Friday, and Escape 2 Africa is decidedly multicultural, meaning that, not only will this sequel be just as big overseas as its 2005 predecessor, but it also feels just right for a country that has just elected Barack Obama as President. This is a far cry from the very "white bread" Bee Movie from the mind of Jerry Seinfeld ("What is the deal with that?").

If my $57.8 million number holds, Escape 2 Africa will become the all-time No. 4 opening for a non-summer animated film released on a non-holiday. (I have screened out animated movies released May-August or for long holiday weekends.)

ALL-TIME TOP ANIMATED OPENINGS FOR NON-SUMMER SEASON/NON-HOLIDAY RELEASES
1. The Incredibles — $70.4 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $68 million
3. Monsters, Inc. — $62.5 million
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa — $57.8 million (Estimated)
5. Shark Tale — $47.6 million
6. Ice Age — $46.3 million
7. Horton Hears A Who — $45 million
8. Happy Feet — $41.5 million
9. Chicken Little — $40 million
10. Bee Movie — $38 million

Also, M:E2A will almost certainly become either the all-time 4th- or 5th-biggest grossing animated movie from DreamWorks, surpassing the original Madagascar ($193.5 million domestic), in the ballpark with this year's Kung Fu Panda ($215.4 million domestic) and trailing only Shrek 2 ($441.2 million domestic) and Shrek the Third ($322.7 million domestic) and the original Shrek ($267.6 million domestic). Also, in terms of overseas box office, I see no reason why this film cannot reach the $550 million-$600 million range in worldwide sales.

After achieving cult status with 2001's Wet Hot American Summer and MTV's long running semi-hit sketch-comedy show The State, David Wain has scored his first big commercial success. The writer/director's new R-rated, Apatow-style comedy Role Models (Universal) has proven that mainstream America may like "Wain's World," as the crude Paul Rudd-Seann William Scott buddy comedy has grabbed a $6 million opening day. By Monday morning, Role Models may bank an estimated $15.9 million, good for second place in the frame. Combined with as much critical acclaim as a movie like this can generate (74 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), and you can expect to see more from Wain and his co-writer and pal Ken Marino.

High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) has its dancing shoes back on after last Friday's Halloween disaster ($1.68 million), and the Kenny Ortega-directed, 'tween-fueled musical has added $2.62 million to start the weekend. That's a Friday-over-Friday increase of 56 percent, and it will likely mean a strong third-place finish for the weekend with about $9 million.

Clint Eastwood's Changeling gives Universal a second movie in the Top 5. Despite decidedly mixed reviews and diminished Angelina Jolie Oscar buzz, the period drama managed $2.1 million on its second Friday, and it may be down as little as 20 percent for the weekend, with something in the $7 million range.

Very quietly, Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) had very solid weekdays after its somewhat disappointing $10 million opening. The Seth Rogen-Elizabeth Banks comedy raunchfest sold another $1.9 million in tickets Friday (No. 6 for the day), and it could deliver a very solid $6.3 million second weekend, which would represent only a 37 percent drop.

The other new wide release is Soul Men (MGM) starring Samuel L. Jackson and the late Bernie Mac. It has been a rough year for MGM, with its best opening weekend, a mere $9.5 million, coming in March with Superhero Movie, so nobody was expecting much from this poorly-reviewed comedy. Even with the always-entertaining Jackson and the gone-too-soon appeal of Mac, it appears that Soul Men will finish at No. 6 for the weekend, with a likely $5.65M million, after generating about $2 million on opening day.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $17 million, $4,191 PTA, $17 million cume
2. NEW Role Models (Universal) — $6 million, $2,150 PTA, $6 million cume
3. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $2.62 million, $758 PTA, $69 million cume
4. Changeling (Universal) — $2.1 million, $1,132 PTA, $15.4 million cume
5. NEW Soul Men (MGM) — $2 million, $978 PTA, $2 million cume
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $1.9 million, $695 PTA, $16.3 million cume
7. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $1.5 million, $530 PTA, $49.6 million cume
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $875,000, $371 PTA, $86.6 million cume
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $825,000, $557 PTA, $27.6 million cume
10. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $775,000, $525 PTA, $37.6 million cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $57.8 million, $14,250 PTA, $57.8 million cume
2. NEW Role Models (Universal) — $15.9 million, $5,697 PTA, $15.9 million cume
3. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $9.05 million, $2,614 PTA, $75.4 million cume
4. Changeling (Universal) — $7.35 million, $3,962 PTA, $20.6 million cume
5. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $6.3 million, $2,303 PTA, $20.7 million cume
6. NEW Soul Men (MGM) — $5.65 million, $2,764 PTA, $5.65 million cume
7. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $4.8 million, $1,697 PTA, $52.92 million cume
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $3.32 million, $1,409 PTA, $89 million cume
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.8 million, $1,894 PTA, $29.6 million cume
10. Max Payne (20th Century Fox) — $2.4 million, $1,628 PTA, $39.26 million cume