• Insider Videos
    • IMDB Trailers

    • Last Weekend
    • Year-To-Date
    • Projections

    • Release Schedule
    • Projections

    • Analysis
    • Weekly Tracking
    • Reviews
    • Message Boards

    • Box Office Moguls
    • Ultimate Movie Moguls
    • Weekend Over/Under

My Studios

Featured Columnist

Indie Jones
Indie Jones is not an archaeologist and adventurer, although he would certainly love to be. He lives in Paris, a city that not only shelters rat chefs, but is reputed for offering the richest film programming on the planet. And so he goes, an avid reader and self-declared film addict, haunting theaters, searching for the next cinematic treasure, be it European, American, Asian, African, or maybe one day, who knows, extraterrestrial.
More from Indie Jones

Featured Columnist

Shrykespeare
Shrykespeare is a native Arizonan, one of the few who actually has the nerve to admit it. He is a movie, TV and sports junkie, who occasionally finds time to spend with his tolerant but exasperated wife. His talents include witty banter, golf, Scrabble, and reciting Monty Python and The Holy Grail from memory. His role models are Homer Simpson and Al Bundy, and he vows to make the world a better, lovelier, happier place as soon as those damn Powerball numbers come in.
More from Shrykespeare

Featured Columnist

Howard Roark
The person hiding behind the Howard Roark moniker is an industry veteran who will refrain from listing his credits and accomplishments as it would negate the use of the Howard Roark moniker. Just accept that he thinks he knows more than you. In the words of Kazunori Nozawa: Trust me!

More from Howard Roark

Featured Columnist

Lee Farber
Lee Farber is currently a writer for "The Soup" on the E! channel. Before that, he wrote on "The Wayne Brady Show" and won an Emmy. It's shiny and pointy and looks great when worn around the neck. He is putting together his first feature, "The Yentas of Sunrise Lakes", about old ladies in Florida, because he knows what the public wants. Lee lives in Los Angeles with his wife and his collection of bootleg CDs.

More from Lee Farber

Featured Columnist

Ronald Banks
Ronald Banks lives in the heart of Hollywood where his hobbies are going to the movies, renting movies, and buying movies on DVD. If you see him in the theater, please remember - there is no talking during the film.

More from Ronald Banks

Featured Columnist

Thomas Donnelly
Thomas Dean Donnelly is the screenwriter responsible for 2005's Sahara and A Sound of Thunder, as well as other films. There is nary a studio he hasn't worked for nor an agency he has not been represented at. In his spare time, he designs games, like the one you are playing right now.

More from Thomas Donnelly

Featured Columnist

Whiting Tattoon
Whiting has been intimately involved with no less than twelve Academy and Golden Globe nominated and/or winning films. He has worked for talent, production companies and studios, in capacities ranging from PA to editing to marketing executive to screenwriter. He is an unabashed lover of cinema, a student of the art form and prone to seizure-like moments of clarity.

More from Whiting Tattoon

Featured Columnist

Dmitry Portnoy
Dmitry Portnoy has watched more than 100 movies a year since he was three. And so have you.

More from Dmitry Portnoy

Featured Analyst

Steve Mason
Steve Mason is a Los Angeles-based talk show host for 710 ESPN Radio. He has previously hosted the nationally-syndicated "The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason" for CBS Radio and worked the last five Olympic Games for NBC and Westwood One Radio Network. He is also President of Flagship Theatres which owns the University Village Theatres near downtown Los Angeles and Cinemas Palme d'Or in Palm Desert, California.

More from Steve Mason

Featured Columnist

Mike Ogle

More from Mike Ogle

Featured Columnist

Nicodemus
Noted sage and mystic Nicodemus, a reputed cyber-scavenger and data carrier, recently escaped from the National Institute of Mental Health. He spends his hours scuttling amongst the pipes running directly beneath the Information Superhighway, collecting scraps of knowledge and overlooked treasures that fall, unnoticed, through cracks and gratings from the world above. He also writes in characters of magic fire and, on occasion, he really, really likes a nice hunk of moldy cheese.

More from Nicodemus

Featured Columnist

Mister Informative
Mister Informative is a college student from Appleton, Wis. He is a staff leader/projectionist for Carmike Cinemas, a national theater chain headquartered in Columbus, Ga., and is a big fan of the new DLP digital cinema technology. He's also been an associate architect of award-winning, in-lobby promotional displays for Over the Hedge and Talladega Nights. Upon discovering Fantasy Moguls, he promptly joined a league with his co-workers -- and that's where the fun began!

More from Mr. Informative
Now Playing

Recent Posts

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Maybe Somewhere Down the Road a Ways / You'll Think of Me and Wonder Where I Am These Days - November 28

Indie Jones: DANCES WITH THE ARTHOUSE: All Good Things ... - November 28

Mister Informative: TIP OF THE WEEK: Giving Thanks for Movies and Farewell to Fantasy Moguls - November 26

Steve Mason: FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: 'Four Christmases' Likely Winner w/$38.5M for 5-Day; 'Twilight' Next in Line w/$30.7M; 'Bolt' Potentially at No. 3, Followed by 'Transporter 3' at $26.8M and 'Australia' at $24M! - November 25

Shrykespeare: BARD'S EYE VIEW: Jumbo Jim Tangles with Big Willy on the Weekend Before Christmas - November 25

More Advice & Analysis

Archives

November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
More Archives
Subscribe:
RSS
Bloglines
Google
Yahoo
MSN

Advice & Analysis: Weekly Tracking

Advice & Analysis: Reviews

November 12, 2008

FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Sony Will Get More Than 'Solace' from Its Rebooted Bond w/$60M Possible; 'Madagascar 2' Could Add Another $40M!

by Steve Mason

reboot: to restart a film franchise, ignoring everything that pertains to the story and characters from previous films; often includes a distinct change in tone

Back in 2003, when Warner Bros. began discussing a new version of Batman, the concept of rebooting a film franchise didn't really exist. As director Christopher Nolan tried to decided who would assume "the cape," he couldn't have realized that he would be revolutionizing the way major studios approach their most lucrative franchises.

Interestingly, I came across the early list of Batman reboot hopefuls, and it included Cillian Murphy from 28 Days Later who wound up playing villain Scarecrow in Batman Begins, Dawson's Creek star Joshua Jackson, Henry Cavill (I Captured the Castle, Showtime's The Tudors) and Eion Bailey from HBO's Band of Brothers and more recently from ER on NBC. It is amazing how fortunes are made in the movie business. Jackson, Cavill or Bailey might be a household name right now if one of the other of their meetings with Nolan would have gone more swimmingly.

With Christian Bale in the title role, Nolan began "The Reboot Revolution." Batman Begins is brilliant, taking the opportunity to start over by placing Bruce Wayne in a gritty Gotham City. Gone are the fanciful, stylized villains and gimmicks that began piling up in Tim Burton's original 1989 feature and culminated in the ridiculous 1997 Joel Shumacher-directed Batman & Robin, featuring George Clooney as Batman, Arnold Schwarzenegger as Mr. Freeze and Uma Thurman as vegetative villain Poison Ivy. It was a joke, and Clooney has been cracking wise about it ever since. Batman Begins went on to gross $205 million domestic, and Nolan's follow-up, The Dark Knight, strengthened the franchise exponentially to the tune of more $525 million domestic.

Not all reboots work. Bryan Singer's 2006 Superman Returns was a critical failure and commercial disappointment (taking in "just" $200 million domestic), and now Warner Bros. will essentially take a "mulligan," rebooting again. In August, Warner Bros. President Jeff Robinov confirmed a new reboot with the Wall Street Journal, saying that the studio will try "going dark to the extent that the characters allow it." (That  Superman. Always and forever a Boy Scout.)

Sony's decision to reboot the Bond franchise was a bit more unorthodox. Whereas Batman had stumbled badly and Superman was off the map altogether, the 007 franchise was riding high with 2002's Die Another Day, starring Pierce Brosnan, the most successful Bond to date at the time, with a little more than $160 million domestic.

Going back to the beginning, creenwriters Neal Purvis and Robert Wade, and then, later, Oscar winner Paul Haggis (Crash) faithfully adapted Ian Fleming's 1953 novel Casino Royale. Brosnan had fulfilled his contractual commitment (three films with an option for the fourth, which became Die Another Day), and in 2005, the actor could see the writing on the wall and "stepped down" from future 007 films.

All of this happened while Batman Begins was being developed, but before its June 2005 release. Once Batman scored big, Sony was all-in for a darker Bond character, as Fleming originally intended, and they signed off on the script that put him in a very cruel, realistic world. Daniel Craig formally accepted the Bond "crown" at an October 2005 press conference and Martin Campbell signed on to direct.

Daniel Craig's Bond is closest in spirit to Sean Connery's version, and this 007 has almost nothing to do with the campy Roger Moore take or the more lightweight Brosnan approach. From the beginning of Casino Royale, we know that this is a real man on his first mission with the MI6. Technically, Bond dies in this movie before being revived, using a one-shot defibrillator, and he falls in love with a woman who ultimately dies in his arms. That's a far cry from "shaken, not stirred" and the jokey sexual double entendres of bygone Bonds.

Now, this new Bond — he loves, he bleeds and he can even be killed (theoretically) — is looking for revenge for the death of the woman he loved. For a Quantum of Solace. For my money, 2006's Casino Royale is the best Bond movie ever. And, most importantly for Sony, their rebooted secret agent is spot-on for what is working in the marketplace. Dark worked for Batman, especially The Dark Knight, and I believe that this film is headed for the commercial "sweet spot" of this holiday moviegoing season. I am predicting a $60 million opening weekend, but anything over $50 million will send this one into the box office stratosphere. I believe that Quantum of Solace will be the first film in the Bond franchise to surpass $200 million domestic, and its to-date international grosses speak for themselves.

Needless to say, rebooting can be very good for the movie business.

Solace is the only wide release this week, so I expect a tremendous hold for Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount), maybe dipping as little as 35 percent, for an excellent $40 million second weekend. Universal's David Wain-directed Role Models will be a strong No. 3 with a possible $10.7 million, representing only a 44 percent dip from opening weekend. Clint Eastwood's Changeling (Universal) is a likely fourth, continuing to play well with Females 25 Plus and potentially adding $5.3 million, and High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) is likely to round out the Top 5 with $4.8 million or so.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOV. 14-16
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $60 million
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $40 million
3. Role Models (Universal) — $10.7 million
4. Changeling (Universal) — $5.3 million
5. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $4.8 million
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $4.2 million
7. Soul Men (MGM) — $2.6 million
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.3 million
9. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $2 million
10. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.9 million

Share:  Newsvine Facebook Digg! del.ici.ous

Posted at 08:38 PM in Advice and Analysis, Live Weekend Estimates, Steve Mason, The Hollywood Independent | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341bfcb653ef010535eb6c3f970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Sony Will Get More Than 'Solace' from Its Rebooted Bond w/$60M Possible; 'Madagascar 2' Could Add Another $40M!:

Comments

Only 60M? I think a few folks might be expecting more from the crazy stuff I've been reading.

Posted by: JackO | November 12, 2008 at 10:50 PM

I'm with Mase here, $60 million and around 210-220 million US total that should lead to about $700+ million worldwide.

Posted by: Alex | November 12, 2008 at 11:59 PM

It will go higher than 60. Definitely.

Posted by: Indie Jones | November 13, 2008 at 03:57 AM

007 = 70.0 M opening.
And Superman Returns a critical failure??? How about a 77% fresh rating on RT and a 72 on Metacritic...thats not bad for a reboot that stared a guy named Routh.

Posted by: aadams | November 13, 2008 at 08:23 AM

gotta agree with aadams...Superman Returns may have been derided by picky fanboys, but generally the critics liked it. it's kinda funny, for whatever reason there are many big movies that fall in that 70-80% range and then later are called critical failures in articles like this: War of the Worlds, Indiana Jones 4, Superman Returns, and now recently Quantum of Solace

Posted by: tony rock | November 13, 2008 at 09:38 AM

I liked War of the Worlds and Superman Returns and I loved Indy 4 and Quantum of Solace, all good movies, maybe not cinematic masterpieces but still good movies.

Posted by: Alex | November 13, 2008 at 02:17 PM

I agree that Superman Returns is a failure,
I don't even have the words to describe how bad it was, and those I know say the same...

Posted by: joseap84 | November 13, 2008 at 05:07 PM

Really don't care how QoS does at the boxoffice which I suppose will be excellent boxoffice due to the typical fanboy rage. From what I am reading most A list critics give it a "boring" on the rating scale. Superman Returns from where I sat was as good or better than the Dark Knight regardless of what fanboys say. As for me I will back at my seat at my favorite theater this weekend looking at "Changeling" for a second time as this is the best adult film of the year thus far. Just fricking outstanding. Superb. Marvelous.

Posted by: jdls08 | November 13, 2008 at 05:44 PM

I've seen Quantum of Solace and I do think bad word of mouth will stop it from the $200 million mark. It's not a bad movie but then again is not a Bond movie either.

Posted by: Harry | November 14, 2008 at 09:28 AM

Why is it that Superman Returns Taking in a Domestic take of 200 million and a worldwide take of 389 million is considered a box office failure? Casino Royal only took in 167 million domestic, and Batman Begins took in 205 million domestic and only 352 million worldwide and their both considered box office hits. Doesn’t make sense to me.

Posted by: Ambrose | November 14, 2008 at 12:47 PM

Ambrose, RETURNS is considered a flop because it had a MUCH bigger budget and marketing costs compared to the others. Also, expectations were much higher too, however it mainly falls on the cost.

Posted by: Ryan | November 14, 2008 at 01:39 PM

Ambrose, why do you mention only the US take of Casino Royal? How can a movie that made almost $600 million worldwide not be considered a hit?

Posted by: Alex | November 14, 2008 at 02:34 PM

I just read on deadlnehollywooddaily that QoS is headed for a possible $28M opening day, and a possible $70M+ weekend. It is still early to know for sure yet, though.

Posted by: Ian | November 14, 2008 at 03:00 PM

I havent seen the new Quantum of Solace yet but i will and i expect it to open with over 65 and do 215 and 700+ worldwide

Posted by: salva | November 14, 2008 at 07:23 PM

Actually, DHD is predicted $23-$24M on Friday and a weekend over $60M.

Posted by: Kompressr | November 14, 2008 at 09:32 PM

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In

You are currently signed in as (nobody). Sign Out

© 2007 Atomic Moguls, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
About Fantasy Moguls | Contact | Support FAQ | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service