FINAL WEEKEND TRACKING: Sony Will Get More Than 'Solace' from Its Rebooted Bond w/$60M Possible; 'Madagascar 2' Could Add Another $40M!
by Steve Mason
reboot: to restart a film franchise, ignoring everything that pertains to the story and characters from previous films; often includes a distinct change in tone
Back in 2003, when Warner Bros. began discussing a new version of Batman, the concept of rebooting a film franchise didn't really exist. As director Christopher Nolan tried to decided who would assume "the cape," he couldn't have realized that he would be revolutionizing the way major studios approach their most lucrative franchises.
Interestingly, I came across the early list of Batman reboot hopefuls, and it included Cillian Murphy from 28 Days Later who wound up playing villain Scarecrow in Batman Begins, Dawson's Creek star Joshua Jackson, Henry Cavill (I Captured the Castle, Showtime's The Tudors) and Eion Bailey from HBO's Band of Brothers and more recently from ER on NBC. It is amazing how fortunes are made in the movie business. Jackson, Cavill or Bailey might be a household name right now if one of the other of their meetings with Nolan would have gone more swimmingly.
With Christian Bale in the title role, Nolan began "The Reboot Revolution." Batman Begins is brilliant, taking the opportunity to start over by placing Bruce Wayne in a gritty Gotham City. Gone are the fanciful, stylized villains and gimmicks that began piling up in Tim Burton's original 1989 feature and culminated in the ridiculous 1997 Joel Shumacher-directed Batman & Robin, featuring George Clooney as Batman, Arnold Schwarzenegger as Mr. Freeze and Uma Thurman as vegetative villain Poison Ivy. It was a joke, and Clooney has been cracking wise about it ever since. Batman Begins went on to gross $205 million domestic, and Nolan's follow-up, The Dark Knight, strengthened the franchise exponentially to the tune of more $525 million domestic.
Not all reboots work. Bryan Singer's 2006 Superman Returns was a critical failure and commercial disappointment (taking in "just" $200 million domestic), and now Warner Bros. will essentially take a "mulligan," rebooting again. In August, Warner Bros. President Jeff Robinov confirmed a new reboot with the Wall Street Journal, saying that the studio will try "going dark to the extent that the characters allow it." (That Superman. Always and forever a Boy Scout.)
Sony's decision to reboot the Bond franchise was a bit more unorthodox. Whereas Batman had stumbled badly and Superman was off the map altogether, the 007 franchise was riding high with 2002's Die Another Day, starring Pierce Brosnan, the most successful Bond to date at the time, with a little more than $160 million domestic.
Going back to the beginning, creenwriters Neal Purvis and Robert Wade, and then, later, Oscar winner Paul Haggis (Crash) faithfully adapted Ian Fleming's 1953 novel Casino Royale. Brosnan had fulfilled his contractual commitment (three films with an option for the fourth, which became Die Another Day), and in 2005, the actor could see the writing on the wall and "stepped down" from future 007 films.
All of this happened while Batman Begins was being developed, but before its June 2005 release. Once Batman scored big, Sony was all-in for a darker Bond character, as Fleming originally intended, and they signed off on the script that put him in a very cruel, realistic world. Daniel Craig formally accepted the Bond "crown" at an October 2005 press conference and Martin Campbell signed on to direct.
Daniel Craig's Bond is closest in spirit to Sean Connery's version, and this 007 has almost nothing to do with the campy Roger Moore take or the more lightweight Brosnan approach. From the beginning of Casino Royale, we know that this is a real man on his first mission with the MI6. Technically, Bond dies in this movie before being revived, using a one-shot defibrillator, and he falls in love with a woman who ultimately dies in his arms. That's a far cry from "shaken, not stirred" and the jokey sexual double entendres of bygone Bonds.
Now, this new Bond — he loves, he bleeds and he can even be killed (theoretically) — is looking for revenge for the death of the woman he loved. For a Quantum of Solace. For my money, 2006's Casino Royale is the best Bond movie ever. And, most importantly for Sony, their rebooted secret agent is spot-on for what is working in the marketplace. Dark worked for Batman, especially The Dark Knight, and I believe that this film is headed for the commercial "sweet spot" of this holiday moviegoing season. I am predicting a $60 million opening weekend, but anything over $50 million will send this one into the box office stratosphere. I believe that Quantum of Solace will be the first film in the Bond franchise to surpass $200 million domestic, and its to-date international grosses speak for themselves.
Needless to say, rebooting can be very good for the movie business.
Solace is the only wide release this week, so I expect a tremendous hold for Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount), maybe dipping as little as 35 percent, for an excellent $40 million second weekend. Universal's David Wain-directed Role Models will be a strong No. 3 with a possible $10.7 million, representing only a 44 percent dip from opening weekend. Clint Eastwood's Changeling (Universal) is a likely fourth, continuing to play well with Females 25 Plus and potentially adding $5.3 million, and High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) is likely to round out the Top 5 with $4.8 million or so.
FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOV. 14-16
1. NEW Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $60 million
2. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $40 million
3. Role Models (Universal) — $10.7 million
4. Changeling (Universal) — $5.3 million
5. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $4.8 million
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $4.2 million
7. Soul Men (MGM) — $2.6 million
8. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.3 million
9. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $2 million
10. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $1.9 million


Only 60M? I think a few folks might be expecting more from the crazy stuff I've been reading.
Posted by: JackO | November 12, 2008 at 10:50 PM
I'm with Mase here, $60 million and around 210-220 million US total that should lead to about $700+ million worldwide.
Posted by: Alex | November 12, 2008 at 11:59 PM
It will go higher than 60. Definitely.
Posted by: Indie Jones | November 13, 2008 at 03:57 AM
007 = 70.0 M opening.
And Superman Returns a critical failure??? How about a 77% fresh rating on RT and a 72 on Metacritic...thats not bad for a reboot that stared a guy named Routh.
Posted by: aadams | November 13, 2008 at 08:23 AM
gotta agree with aadams...Superman Returns may have been derided by picky fanboys, but generally the critics liked it. it's kinda funny, for whatever reason there are many big movies that fall in that 70-80% range and then later are called critical failures in articles like this: War of the Worlds, Indiana Jones 4, Superman Returns, and now recently Quantum of Solace
Posted by: tony rock | November 13, 2008 at 09:38 AM
I liked War of the Worlds and Superman Returns and I loved Indy 4 and Quantum of Solace, all good movies, maybe not cinematic masterpieces but still good movies.
Posted by: Alex | November 13, 2008 at 02:17 PM
I agree that Superman Returns is a failure,
I don't even have the words to describe how bad it was, and those I know say the same...
Posted by: joseap84 | November 13, 2008 at 05:07 PM
Really don't care how QoS does at the boxoffice which I suppose will be excellent boxoffice due to the typical fanboy rage. From what I am reading most A list critics give it a "boring" on the rating scale. Superman Returns from where I sat was as good or better than the Dark Knight regardless of what fanboys say. As for me I will back at my seat at my favorite theater this weekend looking at "Changeling" for a second time as this is the best adult film of the year thus far. Just fricking outstanding. Superb. Marvelous.
Posted by: jdls08 | November 13, 2008 at 05:44 PM
I've seen Quantum of Solace and I do think bad word of mouth will stop it from the $200 million mark. It's not a bad movie but then again is not a Bond movie either.
Posted by: Harry | November 14, 2008 at 09:28 AM
Why is it that Superman Returns Taking in a Domestic take of 200 million and a worldwide take of 389 million is considered a box office failure? Casino Royal only took in 167 million domestic, and Batman Begins took in 205 million domestic and only 352 million worldwide and their both considered box office hits. Doesn’t make sense to me.
Posted by: Ambrose | November 14, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Ambrose, RETURNS is considered a flop because it had a MUCH bigger budget and marketing costs compared to the others. Also, expectations were much higher too, however it mainly falls on the cost.
Posted by: Ryan | November 14, 2008 at 01:39 PM
Ambrose, why do you mention only the US take of Casino Royal? How can a movie that made almost $600 million worldwide not be considered a hit?
Posted by: Alex | November 14, 2008 at 02:34 PM
I just read on deadlnehollywooddaily that QoS is headed for a possible $28M opening day, and a possible $70M+ weekend. It is still early to know for sure yet, though.
Posted by: Ian | November 14, 2008 at 03:00 PM
I havent seen the new Quantum of Solace yet but i will and i expect it to open with over 65 and do 215 and 700+ worldwide
Posted by: salva | November 14, 2008 at 07:23 PM
Actually, DHD is predicted $23-$24M on Friday and a weekend over $60M.
Posted by: Kompressr | November 14, 2008 at 09:32 PM