ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR CHRISTMAS-THEMED FILMS AT THANKSGIVING
1. Elf (2003) — $31.3 million opening, $173.3 million cume
2. The Santa Clause 2: The Mrs. Clause (2002) — $29 million opening, $139.2 million cume
3. The Polar Express (2004) — $23.2 million opening, $179.1 million cume
4. Christmas with the Kranks (2004) — $21.57 million opening, $73.8 million cume
5. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause (2006) — $19.5 million opening, $84.5 million cume
6. The Santa Clause (1994) — $19.3 million opening, $144.8 million cume
7. Fred Claus (2007) — $18.5 million opening, $72 million cume
8. This Christmas (2007) — $17.9 million opening, $49.1 million cume
9. Scrooged (1988) — $13 million opening, $60.3 million cume
10. Bad Santa (2003) — $12.2 million opening, $60 million cume

The quality of these films has never really been a factor, and that’s good for Four Christmases, because, as of Tuesday, it's put together only a 22 percent Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. There is something else going on here, however. The idea of multiple Christmases because of divorce and remarriage is a reality for so many parents and kids that the plotline of this movie almost seems reassuring. We feel better about ourselves when we see a version of our lives onscreen, and this movie fits the bill for a huge chunk of the moviegoing public.

Tracking for Four Christmases really surged over the weekend, and I’m told that the Monday numbers point to a possible weekend win. I am penciling in a potential $38.5 million for this Seth Gordon-directed comedy.

Summit's box-office sensation Twilight is poised to take an enormous percentage tumble, but it should still hold well enough to finish No. 2 over the 5 days. I have seen the movie, and I actually think it has a chance of expanding beyond its teen girl fan base. Director Catherine Hardwicke has knocked this one out of the park. On the casting front,Kristen Stewart is very solid, and, once you get past Robert Pattinson's annoying James Dean-affectedness, he is a solid choice for Edward Cullen.

After $69.6 million in its opening weekend, Twilight could be down as much as 72 percent to $18.9 million for the upcoming Friday-Saturday-Sunday traditional frame. Still, I anticipate a respectable $30.7 million for the five-day, which would push the vampire love saga's domestic gross to $110 million by Monday morning.

After a very tepid start, the well-reviewed Bolt from Walt Disney Animation Studios has a real chance of finishing at third, matching in five days what it delivered on opening weekend. I am predicting about $27.1 million, which would be great news for Pixar's John Lasseter, who is the executive producer of Bolt and the new guiding force behind the reorganized Walt Disney Animation Studios.

All of those teen and 'tween girls who flooded multiplexes for Twilight last weekend will make room for this talking dog family movie, featuring the voice of Hannah Montana herself, Miley Cyrus. If my number is right, Bolt will have a very respectable 10-day cume of about $60 million or so.

Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) will go head-to-head with Quantum of Solace (Sony) for the purely male audience over the holiday. Last year's Thanksgiving action pic was Hitman, starring Timothy Olyphant and  Bond's girl from Solace, Olga Kurylenko, and it managed about $20 million over the five-day.

Jason Statham returns to the role that put him on the map. 2002's The Transporter opened with $9.1 million, followed by a $16.5 million start for Transporter 2 in 2005. Industry tracking points to a $16.9 million three-day opening for Transporter 3, making it the all-time third-best opening of Statham’s career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 3-DAY OPENINGS FOR JASON STATHAM
1. The Italian Job — $19.4 million
2. The One — $19.11 million
3. Transporter 3 — $16.9 million (Predicted)
4. Transporter 2 — $16.5 million
5. Death Race — $12.6 million

For five days, Transporter 3 has a shot at a third-place finish and a possible $26.8 million. That would represent a 34 percent improvement over the performance of Hitman last Thanksgiving.

Baz Luhrmann's Australia (20th Century Fox) is receiving wildly mixed reviews, but they lean to the positive with 58 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of Tuesday. The eclectic Luhrmann's last film was the Oscar nominated Moulin Rouge! ($57.3 million cume) back in 2001, so his core fans are ready to rush out and see this Gone With the Wind-style epic right away, but it remains to be seen if Australia will be in this year's Oscar chase.

Females 25 Plus will be the core demo for this yarn from Down Under, but working against it are the checkered recent box office histories of its two stars Hugh Jackman and Nicole Kidman.

Jackman has only had one non-X-Men, non-animated film open with more than $20 million (Van Helsing, with $51.7 million), and his last two films were notable bombs The Fountain ($3.7 million opening, $10.1 million cume) and Deception ($2.3 million opening, $4.5 million cume). Meanwhile, Kidman is box-office poison with recent infamous disasters like Birth ($5 million cume), Bewitched ($63.3 million cume), Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus ($223,000 cume), The Invasion ($15 million cume) and the very expensive The Golden Compass ($70.1 million cume).

There is decent heat on Australia, according to the current tracking. In fact, there is even a chance for a major upside surprise, and it all may be thanks to Oprah Winfrey, who did an hour with Luhrmann, Jackman and Kidman recently. Here is what "The Big O" said about Australia:

"Our hearts are all swelling because, my God, it's just the film we needed to see. I have not been this excited about a movie since I don't know when. It's the best movie I've seen in a long, long, long, long time. It is epic, it is magic, it is a spectacle and the scenery is so gorgeous you can barely stand it. AUSTRALIA is going to make you jump on a plane and go Down Under."
— Oprah Winfrey

This woman has got major pull with exactly the demo that this movie needs. Oprah’s endorsement counts for a lot. I think this one will top $20 million for five days and finish at No. 5. In fact, my final number is $24 million, which would bode well for 20th Century Fox making back its investment and for awards season.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 5-DAY THANKSGIVING WEEKEND OF NOV. 26-30
1. NEW Four Christmases (Warner Bros.) — $38.5 million
2. Twilight (Summit) — $30.7 million
3. Bolt (Disney) — $28 million
4. NEW - Transporter 3 (Lionsgate) — $26.8 million
5. NEW – Australia (Fox) — $24 million
6. Quantum of Solace (Sony) — $21.5 million
7. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $18.6 million
8. Role Models (Universal) — $8.5 million
9. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $3.4 million
10. Changeling (Universal) — $2.9 million
11. The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Miramax) — $2.4 million
12. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $2.3 million