My official prediction is $60.3 million, which would be fantastic, and anything over $50 million is still great. I have great confidence in M:E2A reaching $200 million domestic, especially given that its only competition next weekend is the adult-skewing Quantum of Solace (Sony). By the time the latest and greatest from Jeffrey Katzenberg's animation house finishes its domestic run, it will be either the all-time third- or fourth-best grossing animated feature in DreamWorks history:

ALL-TIME TOP GROSSING MOVIES FROM DREAMWORKS ANIMATION
1. Shrek 2 — $441.2 million cume ($108 million opening)
2. Shrek the Third — $322.7 million cume ($121.6 million opening)
3. Kung Fu Panda — $215.4 million cume ($60.2 million opening)
4. Madagascar — $193.5 million ($47 million opening)
5. Shark Tale — $160.8 million cume ($47.6 million opening)
6. Over the Hedge — $155 million cume ($38.4 million opening)
7. Bee Movie — $126.6 million cume ($38 million opening
8. Chicken Run — $106.8 million cume ($17.5 million opening)
9. The Prince of Egypt — $101.4 million cume ($14.5 million opening)
10. Antz — $90.7 million cume ($17.1M opening)

The original Madagascar was disproportionately strong overseas, and the sequel's spectacular performance last weekend in Russia and the Ukraine points toward another huge international box office sensation. This is probably because of the franchise’s distinctly multicultural feel, and the worldwide box office for M:E2A seems destined for $550 million-$600 million.

If my $60.3 million number hits, then this family-friendly talking-animals yarn will become the all-time fourth-best opening for a non-Summer animated film released on a non-holiday. (I have screened out animated movies released May-August or for long holiday weekends.)

ALL-TIME TOP ANIMATED OPENINGS FOR NON-SUMMER SEASON/NON-HOLIDAY RELEASES
1. The Incredibles — $70.4 million
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown — $68 million
3. Monsters, Inc. — $62.5 million
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa — $60.3 million (Predicted)
5. Shark Tale — $47.6 million
6. Ice Age — $46.3 million
7. Horton Hears A Who — $45 million
8. Happy Feet — $41.5 million
9. Chicken Little — $40 million
10. Bee Movie — $38 million

The other two wide releases this weekend both have a chance to crack double digits. Universal's Role Models has what I am told is a measurable advantage over Soul Men (MGM) in tracking. Writer/director David Wain is a cult comedy star, and Role Models is his first chance at a mainstream commercial hit.

To a very small and slightly fanatical crowd, the MTV sketch comedy show The State is like a religion. Wain and Role Models co-writer Ken Marino were writer/performers on that cable semi-hit (there are rumors of a film version). The Shaker Heights, Ohio, native also wrote and directed the 2001 cult movie hit Wet Hot American Summer, which grossed only $300,000 domestic, but has gone on to success as a midnight movie staple and on cable. They also managed to crank out the indie movie The Ten, a comedic treatment of the Ten Commandments, last summer, but the effort yielded only $800,000 in domestic ticket sales.

In the final analysis of Role Models, despite the presence of the always-funny Paul Rudd, Wain has co-written and directed another of those Judd Apatow-style R-rated comedies, and this sub-genre has been watered down this year with disappointments like Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro ($15 million opening, $33.4 million domestic), Dane Cook's My Best Friend's Girl ($8.2 million opening, $19.2 million domestic) and last weekend's Seth Rogen-starrer Zack and Miri Make a Porno ($10 million opening). Audiences have become more discriminating about their choices in raunchy humor, so I am pegging Role Models for something in the $12.7 million range and a second-place finish.

It is not entirely impossible that Soul Men will be much bigger than tracking indicates, but I am not betting on it. This is one of the final performances for Bernie Mac who died in August, but probably not one that he will be remembered for. The 100-plus episodes of his long-running TV show stand as a testament to how funny he could be. He was also hilarious in Bad Santa ("You got some lip on you midget" — one of the few of his lines that I can print without offending somebody.) And he began to show some real acting chops with his sturdy, understated performance alongside Terrence Howard in the underrated Pride.

Despite generally negative reviews (45 percent Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), this one will play well with black audiences, but even with Samuel L. Jackson teaming with Mac, there does not seem to be much crossover appeal. Still, I believe that this will be underperforming MGM's best opening weekend of 2008 with about $10.2 million (and a No. 3 finish), surpassing March's Superhero Movie, which managed just $9.5 million.

I anticipate that High School Musical 3: Senior Year million (Disney) will finish fourth with a possible $8.6, down a respectable 44 percent from its second weekend. Changeling (Universal), for my money, Clint Eastwood's weakest directorial effort in years (bring on Gran Torino), should hold very well, down a scant 40 percent to a predicted $5.6 million. Among last week's releases, Zack and Miri (Weinstein) should fare best with a possible $4.7 million, representing a 53 percent drop. Meanwhile, Freestyle's The Haunting of Molly Hartley will likely fall more than 60 percent to something in the $2 million range, and it will miss the Top 10 altogether.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOV. 7-9
1. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $60.3 million
2. Role Models (Univeral) — $12.7 million
3. Soul Men (MGM) — $10.2 million
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) — $8.6 million
5. Changeling (Universal) — $5.6 million
6. Zack and Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) — $4.7 million
7. Saw V (Lionsgate) — $4.8 million
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) — $3.8 million
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) — $2.9 million
10. Eagle Eye (DreamWorks/Paramount) — $2.4 million