TIP OF THE WEEK SPECIAL EDITION: I Spent My Last Dollar on 'Paul Blart' or How to Top Off the Tank for $5 or Less
by Mister Informative
Greetings, Moguls! I'm here this week to complete the Holiday Kickoff Spectacular with a frugal look at the lower end of the price list. See, when putting together your slate, you're almost inevitably left with a few dollars and an open space. But the cheap options are rarely slam dunks, right? That's true in some cases, but not all. And yes, some choices that cost $5 or less are little more than a tossup, or a hope not to damage your slate, with little consideration to positive benefit. You can also find some screaming deals, however, at the bottom of the barrel. So whether you're looking to fill out that last spot on your slate with a few remaining dollars, or conserve funds in order to double-stack a few blockbusters, here are the 10 best $5-or-less choices for both Ultimate Movie Moguls and Box Office Moguls leagues (they might even be more valuable than a five-dollar-footlong):
Some of these films — most specifically, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and Soul Men — are so cheaply priced that they have value in both league types, but in the interest of variety, I've compiled two entirely separate lists. Still, most of these 20 flicks are so much of a bargain that they're way better than anything you could find at, say, those early-bird specials that take place on Black Friday. And in echoing my colleagues' sentiments, here's hoping I'm a little more accurate this year than I was last winter, when I called Be Kind Rewind a virtual must-have — and then its release date promptly changed. D'oh!
Onward! In reverse order, worst to first, Mister Informative proudly presents:
THE 10 BEST ULTIMATE MOVIE MOGULS BARGAINS
10. Wendy and Lucy (Wed., Dec. 10; $5) — Headlining actress Michelle Williams certainly has indie film experience, having been in Brokeback Mountain, I'm Not There and Synecdoche, New York over the past three years. She MIGHT be enough to carry this film to a PTA point or two, but the weekend is very crowded. While normally a Wednesday release doesn't adversely affect PTA, in this case, I think it could. Those extra two days at a limited number of venues could allow a significant fraction of those who want to see it to do so before weekend PTA calculation starts on Friday. And against a bunch of Oscar-bait films, Wendy and Lucy can't afford very many disadvantages (an inexperienced studio is one strike already). I'd be more apt to say that Che, The Reader and Doubt will have better PTA, but the solid 7.8 IMDb score Wendy carries currently and the outside chance at some PTA might be worth a $5 investment. It's a very outside shot, admittedly, and keep in mind that this is just barely worthy of making the list, but I do think you'd have better luck with Wendy and Lucy than with Dostana or Donkey Punch or House of Sleeping Beauties.
9. Extreme Movie (Dec. 5, $2) — I know what you're thinking. "Really? Those horrendous spoof movie guys got funding for another project? And it's coming out already? Oh God, don't tell me they're going to 'spoof' James Bond." Also, "Damn it, Mr. Informative, how can you in your right mind recommend this over ANYTHING at all?" Despite the unfortunate title similarities, however, everyone's favorite cinematic auteurs, Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer, are nowhere near Extreme Movie. If you ask me, I think keeping the working title, Parental Guidance Suggested, would have been much better for avoiding such negative connotations, but, oh well, can't change it now. Instead, this is a comedy about, according to IMDb, the "joys and embarrassments of teen sex. Mostly the embarrassments." Michael Cera and Frankie Muniz star, which was surprising to me given how low-profile the movie is. That said, those two might be enough for you to muscle a few PTA points out of this flick, but the weekend is crowded as far as PTA goes (Frost/Nixon being the frontrunner). Still, at just $2, it could be worth a shot, but know that box office totals will be minimal since it seems Dimension Films can hardly distribute a movie successfully to save their life.
8. Delgo (Dec. 12, $2) — As far as family films go, this is really just a placeholder, something to tide the kids over while they wait between seeing Bolt and the roster of bigger holiday fare: The Tale of Despereaux, Bedtime Stories, Marley & Me. If you've only got $2, however, none of those other flicks will fit — Delgo is your only option. And, heck, it should squeeze out a few million, maybe even scraping by with a Top 5 point or two. Just don't expect much. I think it looks awful, but the craptacularity factor didn't really stop Space Chimps ($30 million) and the situation of being an afterthought didn't completely ruin Igor ($18 million), either. Delgo won't even come close to equaling those, but earnings akin to distributor Freestyle Releasing's last project, The Haunting of Molly Hartley, would be a pretty good contribution. I think a $5 million opening weekend and a total barely reaching $10 million is an optimistic, best-case scenario. More likely is a $2-3 million opening and $7-8 million total. Still, for a mere $2, that's not terrible.
7. Not Easily Broken (Jan. 9, $4) — While Tyler Perry doesn't make an appearance in the current season (he won't be with us again until Madea Goes to Jail in February), this movie looks like it's aiming toward the same type of demographic. With that territory comes a likely IMD-beating; a much lower score than the film deserves will probably result, just because the principal actors are African-American. An unfortunate realization about the IMDb system, to be sure, but we still have to account for it in our Fantasy Moguls strategies. Given that Hellraiser just got a director last week, I highly doubt that it will be ready to come out by January. So, I expect that to move off the date, leaving it very possible Not Easily Broken could come in second on its opening weekend. (There's no way it's beating Bride Wars; future Mrs. Informative Kate Hudson has the top spot pretty much wrapped up that weekend.) That means you could get a half dozen Top 5 points for a $4 pick — not bad at all.
6. Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi (Dec. 12; $2) — Like Wendy and Lucy, this is a small-scale film from an inexperienced U.S. distributor, coming out against a plethora of other, bigger, potential PTA powerhouses. Same weekend, in fact. But I think Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi has a better chance at earning PTA than Wendy and Lucy because of the Bollywood connection. To draw similarities between 2008 and 2007, you may recall that, last winter, I chose another Bollywood film, Saawariya, as my No. 1 cheap Ultimate pick. And, sure enough, despite opening on 85 screens, usually too high of a number for decent PTA stats, it did bring home 2 points in the category. We might see something similar this year. I wouldn't expect much more than 2 PTA points from Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi either, but getting that for $2 is still a decent steal — and the chances of it performing that well are better because I doubt it will be released on as many screens as Saawariya was.
5. Underworld 3: Rise of the Lycans (Jan. 23; $2) — No more Kate Beckinsale (Erstwhile Lara Croft doppleganger Rhona Mitra from Doomsday is replacing her). Even so, however, this could be a good source of some cheap Top 5 points at the end of the season. Opening head-to-head against Possession isn't much competition (and Taken recently moved back a week), but aside from those, Underworld will still have to fend off Inkheart and Hotel for Dogs. It probably won't be able to top both, but the $23 million that Fantasy Moguls projects is well within reason as a full-run number. Back in 2006, Underworld: Evolution opened with $26 million on the way to $62 million total — and that was in an identical January time frame. So, even considering the length of time elapsed between sequels (i.e., will anyone still care?) and the fact that Beckinsale isn't returning, I think Rise of the Lycans could open between $10-15 million and grab $25-30 million (and maybe a couple of Top 5 points) in its two eligible weekends. Pretty good $2 boost.
4. The Uninvited (Jan. 30, $4) — Trivial fact: Elizabeth Banks was considered for the role of Sue Storm in the Fantastic Four movies. I'm debating whether that would have made them better (that's the direction I'm leaning), or hampered her career resurgence (or maybe it's just a surgence — she's never really broken through before this, has she?) this year with Definitely, Maybe, Meet Dave (shudder), W., Zack and Miri Make a Porno and Role Models. In The Uninvited, Banks gets to go creepy as the ominous stepmother terrorizing Arielle Kebbel. (Ooh, scary. Also, what is David Strathairn doing stooping to this level? Shouldn't he be making another Good Night, and Good Luck., or working on the fourth Jason Bourne film, or something?) Historically, generic horror flicks have done moderately well on the same weekend as the Super Bowl. And, lo and behold, the big game is Feb. 1, so 2009 will follow that same trend. I mean, the primary demographic for The Uninvited — easily startled teenage girls — generally doesn't give a lick about the Super Bowl, whereas if you put an action thriller out that weekend, you probably won't attract a big male audience. The fellas will be watching the game. Five of the 10 all-time biggest Super Bowl weekends (and two of the three biggest) were for PG-13 frightfests just like The Uninvited, so I think it's safe to expect a decent $12 million-$18 million and a possible weekend win to close out the season.
3. Soul Men (Nov. 7; $3) — I'm still very surprised that the Fantasy Moguls pricing gurus continue to make this such a bargain. I mean, it opens on the first weekend of the season, so you will essentially get the benefit of the film's entire theatrical run if you put it on your slate. Given last weekend's disappointing box office results, Soul Men could very well take second place this weekend — and it could make over $10 million in the process. (And then, only one wide release comes out next week, so depending on this weekend's performance, you could possibly get half a dozen Top 5 points from it.) I've speculated previously about how the curiosity/homage effect of Bernie Mac's recent death might positively affect business, too. And yet, there it sits in the bargain barrel, still just $3. Definitely snatch it up. The only negative aspect I can see is that MGM is distributing, and they often fail to have success. But heck, the Weinstein Co. had a moderate hit in Zack and Miri last week, so let's make it two weeks in a row where flailing studios don't go down the drain quite yet, eh?
2. Valkyrie (Dec. 26; $3) — Christmas is an extremely crowded weekend, but there has to be room for some adult fare in there somewhere. Last year it was Charlie Wilson's War, and, although Tom Cruise is not as respected as Tom Hanks anymore, I still think his new movie is a decent cheap speculative pickup. His revitalized United Artists last handled Lions for Lambs, and that was an across-the-board failure. But Cruise is viewed as less crazy now, and though it's strange that the Nazis in his film speak perfect, unaccented English, I don't think that should be a huge point of contention. Also worth noting is that Bryan Singer is directing and, having made The Usual Suspects and the first two X-Men films, he's no slouch. The supporting cast is strong, too, with Kenneth "Director of Thor" Branagh, Tom Wilkinson and Eddie Izzard all expected to make appearances. Of course, Lions for Lambs had a strong cast, too (Robert Redford and Meryl Streep, in addition to Cruise), and that didn't help. But I have a different feeling about Valkyrie. I'm not saying it'll be a surprise smash, but I do think that its miniscule price tag gives it some added value.
1. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Jan. 16; $2) — It looks sort of like Home Alone, only set in a mall instead of in a house, and with an adult instead of a kid. And it's far and away the best $5-or-less Ultimate pick. To make things even better, it's as cheap as you can get. It's going up against prognosticated big hit I Love You Man on opening weekend, but after The House Bunny, I've learned that, even without Adam Sandler in front of the camera, Happy Madison productions can still do just fine. Fantasy Moguls predicts $22 million. I say, yeah right. It'll double that by the time all is said and done, and I think it can hit $35 million in its three eligible weekends. I'm honestly surprised that this isn't coming out in March, or some other less-dead month, when the earnings ceiling would be a little higher. Kevin James's deadpan subtlety in the trailer ("Pie. It just fills the cracks of the heart ... ") is just perfect. Mark my words, this is the next mid-size hit few people saw coming, just like The House Bunny. Snap it up immediately.
And, with that, it's time for:
THE 10 BEST BOX OFFICE MOGULS BARGAINS
10. Last Chance Harvey (Dec. 26, opens wide Jan. 23; $3). If you'd asked me about this film last year, I would have immediately said there was no chance of even a little success, just on the basis of the production company alone. This year, though, Traitor and Righteous Kill have shown that Overture Films has it together a little more than they used to. And the casting of Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson in Last Chance Harvey can only help. It's the same sort of thing that aided Righteous Kill — because of the names involved, people are more likely to go even if the final product isn't exactly a masterpiece. I still think it'll get lost in the shuffle a little bit, especially amongst all the other Oscar bait coming out in December and expanding in January, but two weekends of wide release is a tempting offer. Even if you agree that it doesn't look like the most surefire hit, better to have Last Chance Harvey than one of the myriad other $2 Box Office options (like Lake City or Of Time and the City), many of which won't even get to $1 million total.
9. The Reader (Dec. 10, opens wide Jan. 9; $2) — Not Kate Winslet's most high-profile role of the winter (that would be Revolutionary Road), but still might make enough moolah, especially after the expansion in January, to be worth $2. That's the case with a lot of the picks on this list — they are scheduled to open limited, but their expansion as the season rolls onward is what makes them valuable. Heck, after seeing Juno bring in over $100 million from a limited start last year, who wouldn't want that kind of effect on their slate? The presence of The Weinstein Company sort of keeps a cloud over The Reader, because knowing their fickle nature when it comes to release dates, part of me worries that it could get yanked to a different date again before all is said and done. But assuming it stays where it is, a whole month of wide release in January could bring in a decent-sized haul for a minimal investment.
8. The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Nov. 7 limited, expansions to follow; $2) — After opening at an estimated 16 locations this weekend, the elastic waistband of these Pajamas will kick in as the film expands to wider venues. There's no telling exactly how wide it will go, but there are scheduled expansions each of the next two weeks. As with Soul Men on the Ultimate side, you'll have the benefit of the entire season's worth of statistics if you put Striped Pajamas on your roster. So we could be in for the "slow burn" effect, with only a little money at the beginning but increasing amounts later on, especially if the film starts to get recognition for awards. I'm thinking of Pajamas kind of like last year's I'm Not There, which opened at Thanksgiving but brought home $3.6 million by the end of January. That's not a huge contribution, but remember, you're only paying $2; you can't expect the world.
7. Doubt (Dec. 12 limited, scheduled expansions Dec. 19 and 25; $2) — This is one of the most buzzed-about films of the season when it comes to Oscar nominations. I read an article recently that acknowledged the possibility of Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams, and Viola Davis ALL receiving Oscar noms for their performances. And, in the past, every time a movie has received four acting nods, it's also been in the race for Best Picture. With that kind of recognition, public awareness will only go up, and curiosity and interest in seeing the film will go up as well. Of course, the Oscar noms aren't announced until towards the end of the current season, but buzz and interest start building long before the nominations are released. Take last year, for example: every Best Picture nominee made at least $40 million, and in every instance at least $8 million of that came before the nomination. For me, statistics like that remove any remaining Doubt (ho, ho) as to how helpful Oscar bait can be for Box Office purposes.
6. Cadillac Records (Dec. 5, $2) — While Box Office Mojo doesn't list any scheduled expansions, I don't see how Cadillac Records just gets left in a few theaters through all of December and January. It evokes Dreamgirls in a way, and not just because of the Beyoncé similarity. (Although, if I may say this: She totally does not sound period-accurate as Etta James. But I digress.) Also, it looks MUCH better than Adrien Brody's other December release, The Brothers Bloom. And, in the same way as we're seeing a lot of Elizabeth Banks lately, Cadillac Records completes the Jeffrey Wright (who I've always thought was a little underrated and underappreciated) trifecta — Colin Powell in W., and Agent Felix Leiter in Quantum of Solace are his other two fall roles. And above all, although the cast is predominantly African-American, I think the primary audience for Cadillac Records is music aficionados, not just one particular racial demographic. That says good things about box office viability.
5. The Wrestler (Dec. 17, $5) — While it will rack up the PTA points in limited release, once the calendar hits January, I think Fox Searchlight will step up the number of theaters in order to have a wide release perhaps right around the time Academy nominations are announced. I mean, let's face it — the majority of the American theater-going public probably doesn't know about, or isn't anticipating, The Wrestler right now. They'll see some ads the week it comes out, but until the rave reviews start rolling in and the buzz for Mickey Rourke as a Best Actor frontrunner really gets going, the film won't appeal to a very wide audience. It's only when the conversation about awards gets more serious that indie films like this begin to have excellent box office prospects on a larger scale. But make no mistake, The Wrestler will have that success as it expands — and it may be something to keep in mind for December-February leagues if the price stays low enough, too.
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Wed., Nov. 12, $5) — Last year, Fox Searchlight held free screenings of Juno across the country even after the film had officially been released. This year they're trying that same strategy with Slumdog Millionaire. Now, I'm not saying it will be the next surprise $100 million indie, but these screenings do help spread positive word of mouth, which will ultimately lead to higher box office numbers. Another benefit of Slumdog Millionaire is that, with the November release, you'll effectively get full-run statistics, because it will probably have expanded wide enough by the end of 2008 to be bringing in a few million every week rather than a few hundred thousand in limited release. And that also means there's little danger of the end-of-season cutoff having too damaging of an effect. Of course, one substantial issue is whether the film has a whole lot of crossover appeal. My answer: While there certainly isn't as much as with Juno, I do think that Slumdog Millionaire won't just be for a niche crowd. Take it with confidence.
3. Role Models (Nov. 7; $5). This is another film that's a deal because it has both a low price tag and an early-season release. I'm not expecting much more than $30 million total, but heck, that's not bad for $5 — and if it becomes a bigger hit, well, you'll certainly get the benefit because it's in play for the full scope of the season. It probably has to make its money quickly before the big, ultra-wide-release blockbusters start usurping 3,000-plus screens every weekend, but I think it can do that. And clearly, with a mere $10 million opening weekend, Zack and Miri Make a Porno doesn't have the market cornered on R-rated comedy right now, so there's an opening for Role Models. Summer (with Step Brothers, Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder in a four-week span) proved that multiple raunchy comedies can be successful simultaneously. While the box office returns won't be as big here, I think Role Models will help prove that once again.
2. My Bloody Valentine 3D (Jan. 16; $4) — The sheer novelty of it is what makes this a worthwhile pick. Oh, sure, we've seen 3D stuff come to theaters before, but it's always been animation (like Bolt), motion capture (Beowulf), a concert (Hannah Montana and next year's Jonas Brothers concert film), or live-action, but still family-friendly (Journey to the Center of the Earth). Even though digital 3D has really started taking off over the past few years, we haven't had a horror movie take advantage of the technology until now. Think of the effects: spattering blood, paranoia over the incredible depth of a long, dark, abandoned hallway, the shock of the killer seemingly coming out of the screen, not to kill someone in the movie but to kill (gasp) THE AUDIENCE. Yes, My Bloody Valentine is a remake, and will probably be incredibly bad and full of gimmicks, but those gimmicks are precisely what draws people to 3D. The novelty of seeing something you can't get at home or on DVD (plus the fact that ticket prices for 3D features are always a little more expensive) has immensely helped the earnings of other 3D releases over the past few years, and My Bloody Valentine will be no exception, even if it does cater to a decidedly more mature crowd than most other 3D flicks that have come out recently.
1. Chilled in Miami (Jan. 30; $2) — Remember how five of the 10 biggest Super Bowl weekend grosses belonged to horror movies? Well, those other five also fall under one big category heading: appealing to a primarily female audience. You Got Served, She's All That, The Wedding Planner, Because I Said So — yep, as a fish-out-of-water romantic comedy, Chilled in Miami fits right in with those. (A Miami businesswoman must adapt to her life in a new, smaller, probably freezing, Minnesota town — imagine the hilarity that will ensue! For example, she's probably not used to walking in snow; who wants to bet that at some point she slips and falls, to her own embarrassment and the delight of the locals?) Like The Uninvited, it should bank a solid $15 million or so whilst husbands and boyfriends gear up to watch football. As formulaic as it may be, Chilled in Miami will provide a great final-weekend boost to your slate, and at very little cost. If only Renee Zellweger didn't look like she's squinting at all times ...
And with that, this Tip of the Week Special Edition draws to a close. Here's hoping you've enjoyed the special analysis that Steve Mason, Shrykespeare, Indie Jones and I have brought you this week, and best of luck in the upcoming season!
Mister Informative would have had a lot of competition back in the day, right around the time of the release of Almost Famous. Now? The line to hook up with Kate Hudson is probably quite a bit shorter. Go for it, big guy. Pass along your encouragement and romantic advice to misterinformative@gmail.com.


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