SHOWBIZ STOCK WATCH: Warner Bros. Set to Win the 2008 Studio Market Share Race, but Paramount/DreamWorks On Pace For an Average of $117M Domestic Per Release!
by Steve Mason
When Paramount/Dreamworks unleashed back-to-back-to-back $200 million-grossing titles starting with Iron Man in May, they seemed like an "iron-clad" lock to win the big studio market share battle for 2008. Then along came Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, which has rocked the nation to the tune of almost $530 million domestic. TDK has ensured that Warner Bros. will secure its first market share title since 2005, and despite the rampaging success of Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, Paramount cannot catch them.
There are, however, lots of ways to look at the year's box office. In terms of total domestic tickets sold, the crown goes to Warner Bros., but they have released 16 movies in 2008 compared to just 13 for Paramount/DreamWorks. So, I was curious, what is the average box office per movie for each of the so-called Big 6?
Starting at the bottom, 20th Century Fox has had a rough year. They have released 16 movies so far, and none of them have reached $100 million, with its top two titles being What Happens in Vegas ($80.2 million cume) and Jumper ($80.1 million cume). A dozen of their 2008 releases have failed to crack $50 million, and they had some disastrous big budget pictures like The X-Files: I Want to Believe ($20.9 million cume) and Eddie Murphy's Meet Dave ($11.8 million cume). Fox's average gross per movie is currently just $36.9 million, although in fairness, that will almost certainly improve, with both Baz Luhrman's Australia and the remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still on the way.
After adding projected final grosses ($32 million for Changeling and $42 million Role Models), Universal comes next, with 17 movies and an average gross of $59.3 million. Sony is presently fourth, with 16 movies and a $63.9 million average, but this week's Quantum of Solace and next month's Will Smith drama Seven Pounds will likely push its average to over $70 million per 2008 release.
Disney is a solid No. 3, operating, as always, with laser precision. The company has released 9 movies so far with an average domestic take of $82.5 million. That batting average would have been considerably higher if its two adult titles — Kevin Costner's Swing Vote ($16.2 million cume) and Spike Lee's The Miracle of St. Anna ($8 million cume) — had not missed so badly. If you pencil in a somewhat conservative $150 million for the 3D animated romp Bolt, due at Thanksgiving, then Disney's per movie average for the year will reach almost $90 million.
Warner Bros. is No. 2, with an estimated $86.7 million for each of its 2008 releases. That includes The Dark Knight, along with other $100 million-plus performers Sex and The City ($152.6 million cume), Get Smart ($130.3 million cume) and Journey to the Center of the Earth ($101.3 million cume). The company has been busy this year, absorbing New Line, Warner Independent and Picturehouse, and some of the titles from those divisions, including Pride and Glory and RockNRolla, have not worked as well as expected. Obviously, keeping Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince on its original November date would have driven the Warner Bros. per-movie average way up, but regardless, this is a spectacular year in the history of the company.
That leaves Paramount/DreamWorks at the top, with a per movie average well over $100 million, which is staggering. In fact, if Escape 2 Africa hits at least $210 million, which feels like a safe bet, the Melrose Avenue gang will have managed about $117 million per 2008 release (not counting The Curious Case of Benjamin Button due Christmas Day). Who knows how Paramount will fare in the long term, with Spielberg, Katzenberg and Geffen gone. In the short term, however, it seems that there are a healthy number of DreamWorks projects still in the pipeline along with the company's burgeoning Marvel Studios relationship.
x-files was not a big budget film. it was only a 30 million dollar budget. it's grossed over 60 world wide. i'm not claiming it was a success or a hit... just saying it was definitely not a big budget picture. add to it the dvd rentals, sales, here and worldwide and fox is definitely making money. again... not defending it, not saying it was a hit, i didn't even see it... but a 30 million dollar budget and grossing 60 does not qualify as a disastrous big budget picture. yes they expected more but obviously knew it would take in less because they put it at such a low budget.
Posted by: tom | November 11, 2008 at 01:36 AM
I thought Horton Hears A Who was from 20th century fox
Posted by: salva | November 11, 2008 at 06:12 AM
Horton was Fox but it looks like Mase missed than one ...ouch! Care to fix that, dude?
Posted by: Alex | November 11, 2008 at 08:01 AM
Ya but next year fox will have Night of the Muesum 2, Ice Age 3 and X-Men Origins Wolverine for the summer.
Posted by: salva | November 12, 2008 at 06:13 PM
Ranking movie studios based on the average grosses of their movies is very misleading. If a movie cost $100 million and generated $150 is not that big of a deal. Having a movie that was budgeted at $20 or $30 and generated $80 is by far more profitable considering the marketing expenses for those $100million movies. And by the way I think $42 million for Role Models is a bid on the low end.
Posted by: Harry | November 14, 2008 at 09:24 AM