The very first Oscar precursor every year is the announcement of the Gotham Independent Film Awards, presented by the Independent Feature Project (IFP). The GIFAs aren't a strong Academy Awards precursor, but sometimes the oldest and largest organization of independent filmmakers has some influence with Golden Globe and Oscar voters. Back in 2004, Gotham voters got behind Maria Full of Grace in a big way, giving their Breakthrough Actor Award to Catalina Sandino Moreno, and she landed an Academy Award nomination for her heartbreaking performance as a "drug mule." In that same year Sideways won IFP's Best Feature and went on to crack the Best Picture field at Oscar time. The 2005 Gotham winners for Best Feature (Capote), Breakthrough Director (Capote director Bennett Miller) and Breakthrough Actor (Amy Adams from Junebug) all became Oscar nominees. In the last two years, the Gothams have helped Half Nelson screenwriters Ryan Fleck and Anna Boden, Babel actress Rinko Kikuchi and Ellen Page from Juno to reach the movie industry's biggest night.

It's never too early to start speculating about the Academy Awards. Although the year is just 200 days along, and most of the obvious Oscar titles will not arrive in theaters until September or October at the earliest, I thought it would be entertaining to ask the question, "What if the Oscar nominations came out today?"

I have mapped out five nominees in each of the big six categories, and, no surprise, both The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) and WALL-E (Disney) show up in both the Best Picture and Best Director categories. I have also been very kind to some of my favorite specialty releases from the first six-and-a-half months of 2008, including The Visitor (Overture), Under the Same Moon (Weinstein), The Fall (Roadside Attractions), OSS117: Cairo — Nest of Spies (Music Box) and Roman de Gare (Samuel Goldwyn). Yes, some of these films are assured of being long since forgotten by next January.

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Mase's Pick: No Country For Old Men
Winner: No Country For Old Men
Overall Batting Average: 1.000
ANALYSIS : Although I can create scenarios in my imagination where No Country For Old Men fails here, they seem farfetched. The picture has strength in all of the Academy's branches winning guild awards from the actors, the directors and the writers, and it has been lauded by critics, almost unanimously. As Ken Turan has pointed out in the Los Angeles Times, giving the Best Picture Oscar to George Clooney would be like Hollywood giving the award to itself as it is the only film to come from the heart of the studio system, but this is a longshot. Older Academy members may be drawn to vote for the old-fashioned Atonement and younger voters may support Juno, but this is the year that the Coen Brothers finally receive their due.

Sunday is Christmas Day for movie fans. It's the Academy Awards, live from the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood.

For the third consecutive year, I will be hosting ABC Radio Network's Oscar Night special on stations from coast-to-coast. The show will air in New York on WABC from 7-10 p.m. eastern and on KABC in Los Angeles from 7-10 p.m. pacific. Hosting the show with me will be ABC Radio veterans Heidi Oringer and David Blaustein. No matter where you are, you should be able to pick up the show. Check your local ABC Radio affiliates.

Roll out the red carpet. Cue the music. Heat up the spotlights. The Fantasy Moguls Holiday Season is officially over, and we have a winner in the dogfight that was the Celebrity League.

And the Oscar goes to ...

The Paramount and Dreamworks musical Dreamgirls was considered a certain nominee and a likely winner for Best Picture, but the Oscar race changed dramatically when the movie received one of the most shocking snubs in Academy Awards history. Despite its overall strength (eight nominations), the film received no Best Picture nomination and Director Bill Condon was also overlooked. Jennifer Hudson and Eddie Murphy both received their anticipated supporting acting nominations, and the film was also recognized for sound mixing, art direction, costumes and for three of its original songs.

Dreamgirls and Babel scored major wins at the Golden Globes, possibly translating into strong finishes in the current Fantasy Moguls flight.

Monday night, the Hollywood awards season hits its first big crescendo with the 64th Annual Golden Globe Awards at the Beverly Hilton Hotel. The Globes, along with the Guild awards (PGA, DGA and SAG), tend to be the very best predictors of success at the Academy Awards (nominations will be announced Jan. 23). This year, a Globe win can really help Box Office and Ultimate Moguls players by creating a box office resurgence for certain films in the final weeks of the holiday game cycle.

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award nominees have been announced, and there were plenty of high profile snubs to go around. The biggest stars overlooked by their fellow actors were Jack Nicholson, Matt Damon and Mark Wahlberg for The Departed, Ben Affleck for Hollywoodland and Brad Pitt for Babel, but the SAG nominating committee also left Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine), Michael Sheen (The Queen), Shareeka Epps (Half Nelson), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby), Beyonce Knowles (Dreamgirls), Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat) and Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration) waking up nominationless.

The Oscar race took shape as the Golden Globe nominations were announced early this morning at the Beverly Hilton, and there are some surprises. The nominations are also filled with implications for Moguls Box Office and Ultimate Moguls players.