Has The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford been shot in the back?
I've been hearing negative buzz about The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros.) for months. The confirmation of this film's certain bomb status arrived from Venice last week from film critic Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter. He describes the film as smothered in pointlessly long takes, repetitive scenes, grim Western landscapes and mumbled, heavily-accented dialogue.

Jet Li's War easily strongest of Friday releases in early tracking
This coming weekend (Aug. 24-26) offers five wide-release movies, and one of them stands out in early industry tracking. War (Lionsgate), from rap video director Phillip J. Atwell (he's worked with 50 Cent, Xzibit and Eminem), is at just 45 percent Total Aware, but its Awareness with Males Under 25 is 64 percent. The Let Li/Jason Statham martial arts action flick has the best Definite Interest of the new wide-release  films with a decent 36 percent. Under 25 Males lead the way in that category as well, as 42 percent say that they are interested. If Lionsgate plays this right with 2,200 screens and a late TV push, $10 million-$12 million is likely, and $15 million is a possibility.

Denzel will be a likely Oscar contender for Gangster
In the September-November Fantasy Moguls flight, a number of the year-end major studio prestige titles will be available, and perhaps none has quite the pedigree of Universal's American Gangster, set for wide release Nov. 2. Directed by three-time Oscar nominee Ridley Scott, the film stars Denzel Washington as real-life drug lord Frank Lucas, who in 1970s Harlem smuggled heroin in the coffins of dead American soldiers from Vietnam. Russell Crowe stars as the detective trying to bust the drug ring.

Rush Hour 3 headed for a $50M opening weekend!
One of my sources just passed along early tracking figures for pictures set for release Aug. 8 thru Aug. 17, and Rush Hour 3 (New Line) looks like the only sure thing. It's been six years since Chris Tucker, Jackie Chan and director Brett Ratner gave us Rush Hour 2, which grabbed a monstrous $67.4 million on opening weekend en route to a total domestic gross of $226.1 million. I've been skeptical about this project all summer, and it's now clear that I've been wrong.

I Know Who Killed her career, but DUI will boost her new movie
By now, you've probably heard that Lindsay Lohan was arrested Monday night/Tuesday morning for DUI. This is unbelievable considering that she just finished 45 days of rehab at a Malibu, Calif., facility. Word is that she blew something in the range of 1.2-1.3, and that cocaine was discovered in the pocket of her pants. She was arrested near the corner of Main Street and Pico in Santa Monica, which is convenient, ironically, to the Santa Monica courthouse just one block away. Apparently, she was chasing the mother of her former personal assistant, who quit what must be an impossible job recently.

Cloudy forecast for Danny Boyle's Sunshine
A few months back, I was invited to an advance screening of Sunshine (Fox Searchlight), the new sci-fi film from Danny Boyle. It'll open on 10 screens this Friday before going to 1,000-plus on July 27.

The Full Monty for Bart Simpson
In less than three weeks, The Simpsons Movie (20th Century Fox) will make its debut. There is little question that Homer Simpson will be the star of a $100 million blockbuster, but how high will this movie go? It's very tough to say.

SICKO LEAK WILL NOT DAMAGE MICHAEL MOORE'S BOTTOM LINE
The Weinstein Co., Lionsgate and Michael Moore got some bad news this week. Moore's healthcare doc Sicko, the toast of the Cannes Film Festival, is widely available for download at online sites like The Pirate Bay.

Scott's Gangster May Find its Way Into the Oscar Dance: Tom Tapp at Hollywood Wiretap says that Universal is getting an early jump on its awards campaign for American Gangster, due in November. The new trailer dwells on its Oscar pedigree by trumpeting that the film stars Academy Award winners Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington, and is produced by Academy Award winner Brian Grazer (A Beautiful Mind). The script is from Academy Award winner Steve Zaillian (Schindler’s List), and the movie also features Academy Award winner Cuba Gooding Jr. (although Boat Trip, to say nothing of half a dozen other recent Gooding Jr. films, may negate any remaining glow from his Oscar-winning performance in Jerry Maguire). By the way, Gangster is directed by Ridley Scott, who has been Oscar-nominated for Thelma & Louise, Gladiator and Black Hawk Down, but has never won. Check out the trailer and keep this movie at the top of your Fantasy Moguls acquisition list starting in September.

First Hairspray Review is a Rave
I have regularly raised questions about the commercial viability of Hairspray (New Line) set for wide release on July 20. In the last decade, eight musicals have been released with widely mixed results.