It's a critical weekend in the movie business with three major titles opening wide: Charlotte’s Web (Paramount / Dreamworks), Eragon (Fox) and Pursuit of Happyness (Sony). The consensus is that either Eragon or Charlotte's Web can win the weekend, and, with a Golden Globe nomination in hand for Will Smith, Pursuit can get to the mid-to-high teens in the three-day frame.

I would love to tell you that I know exactly how this weekend will play out at the box office, but I’m a little mystified. Three new movies – Apocalypto (Buena Vista), The Holiday (Sony) and Blood Diamond (Warner Bros) – and I won’t be surprised if any of the them win the weekend.

In many ways, this weekend (12/1-3) is the calm before the storm. Next Friday, Blood Diamond (Warner Bros.), The Holiday (Sony) and Apocalypto (Buena Vista) all hit the market in what should be a box office dogfight amongst the major studios. Today, The Nativity Story (New Line) is the lone significant release with Fox Atomic and MGM adding a couple of complete throwaways, Turistas and Van Wider 2: The Rise of Taj.

Writer/Director Bill Condon was in the audience at the Imperial Theatre on Broadway on December 20, 1981. His love for the incredible Michael Bennett Broadway production Dreamgirls shines through in every frame of his film adaptation, and the result is the best motion picture of 2006.

This Thanksgiving weekend is a box office crapshoot.

The booming holiday business will be boosted by those dancin' penguins and by the new blond Bond, both of which I am projecting to finish in the top three. The new Denzel Washington-Tony Scott thriller is also sure to come out of the box with a big number. After that, not a lot is certain.

Somebody asked me recently why I think Happy Feet (Warner Bros.) will be so much bigger than Flushed Away (Paramount). The answer is simple. Penguins.

Penguins starred in the one of the most successful documentaries in history, March of the Penguins ($77 million domestic). The stubby-legged flightless birds are the cutest creatures this side of the koala.

When Snakes On A Plane tanked in August, the new conventional wisdom was that you can’t trust buzz. In that case, some bloggers spent the better part of a year talking up the Sam Jackson thriller, and then they were the only people to show up on opening weekend. Borat (Fox) actually found a way to outperform its buzz.

The most subversive movie of 2006 hits 800 screens this weekend, and it’s hard to say how much Borat will deliver on its opening weekend, but there is no question that this highly-anticipated Sacha Baron Cohen film will benefit from Fox’s decision to open on fewer screens. I live in Los Angeles, and there is no question that the film will open huge here and in most major cities, but will it play in Poghkeepsie?

In the last 3 weeks, I’ve written about “horror fatigue” in the marketplace, and I strongly believe that is one of the reasons that Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning (New Line) and The Grudge 2 (Sony) have both scored lower-than-expected box office figures. This weekend, Saw III (Lions Gate) hits the multiplex and the question is whether Jigsaw will fall prey to the same lack of enthusiasm.

After modestly-budgeted successes Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood’s most expensive film yet arrives at multiplexes this weekend. His WWII action/drama Flags of Our Fathers opens at 1,800 locations tomorrow (10/20), and it should easily win the weekend box office competition.