WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Iron Man (Paramount) continues to enjoy solid weekday grosses, adding an estimated $3.12 million on Wednesday. The first movie produced and financed by Marvel Studios has topped $188.15 million domestic. Robert Downey Jr.'s superhero debut should blow past $200 million on Friday, and it has an outside chance finish the upcoming weekend with $220 million. What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) was No. 2 on Wednesday with nearly $1.5 million, and a new cume of $25 million.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: There is no mystery about which film will win the weekend. It is more a question of how high will The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian rise? On Sunday, I was very comfortable forecasting $60 million-$70 million based on industry tracking. The original franchise-starter The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe reached $65.5 million on its opening weekend back in December 2005, and that film has gained popularity in the home video market. The Christian themes in C.S. Lewis's Narnia Chronicles books make this the ultimate family-friendly movie, clearly supported by an aggressive faith-based marketing campaign in America's churches.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Marvel's Iron Man (Paramount), directed by Jon Favreau and starring Robert Downey Jr., has powered past the $185 million mark, after grabbing an estimated $3.38 million on Tuesday. 20th Century Fox's What Happens in Vegas, driven by the all-star romantic-comic duo of Ashton Kutcher and Cameron Diaz, was No. 2 for the day with $1.69 million and a new cume of $23.5 million. Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) finished third with about $960,000.

Who is ShogunMaster, and why is The New York Times taking him so seriously?

Someone in the exhibition business attended a trade screening of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull last week and then published a scathing review of the film under the nom de plume of ShogunMaster on Ain't It Cool. The "old gray lady" then ran a story headlined "Indiana Jones and the Long Knives of the Internet." Should we really trust the word of guy who will not even reveal his name? I have not seen the movie yet, and, in the interest of full disclosure, I am an unabashed fan of Steven Spielberg.

In December of 2005, Disney's The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe became a box office sensation with a $65.5 million opening weekend en route to a $291.7 million domestic gross and nearly $750 million worldwide. Given the popularity of the first film, which sold piles of tickets thanks in part to Red State-friendly Christian themes, organized outreach via churches and Disney's expertise at delivering the family audience, this Friday's Narnia sequel Prince Caspian has an excellent shot to exceed its predecessor's opening weekend, becoming the biggest opener ever for Walden Media and billionaire financier Philip Anschutz.

SUNDAY MORNING: The studios believe that Mother's Day will help Speed Racer (Warner Bros.), What Happens in Vegas (20th Century Fox) and Made of Honor (Sony) to stronger-than-expected Sunday performances, with Speed Racer performing even better than on its opening day. Warner Bros. tells me that they are reporting $6.2 million for Friday, $7.3 million for Saturday and an anticipated $6.6 million for Sunday, for a three-day of $20.2 million for Speed Racer. That beats the $18.7 million that I projected Saturday night at 9 p.m. (Pacific). $20 million also sounds much better than $18 or $19 million and, combined with solid A- ratings from Cinema Score, it gives the Wachowskis's adaptation of the cartoon classics a chance to continue to score with families next weekend, especially with boys 12-16.

Iron Man (Paramount) is the almost certain winner at America's multiplexes this weekend, and it has been well-reported that Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) will have an uphill drive. This should probably not come as a surprise, and it may have less to do with the movie than with its release date. Although I am by no means a movie critic, I like Speed Racer. The Wachowskis are certainly equal parts genius and self-indulgence, but this movie is an absolute original. In many ways reminiscent of Disney's 1982 film Tron, Racer is too long, but it is consistently engaging, a candy-colored adventure that's almost hypnotic. On a resume that includes the lesbian-flavored thriller Bound, the Matrix trilogy and the underrated V for Vendetta (directed by James McTeigue), Speed Racer is a more-than-worthy entry for the Wachowskis.

Iron Man (Paramount) will almost certainly comfortably win a second consecutive weekend at the box office as Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) struggles to reach $30 million. I have not been able to find a studio exec who believes that the Wachowski Brothers's adaptation of the late '60s anime cartoon classic will be able to outrun its bad industry tracking and generally negative reviews (only 29 percent Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes as of Wednesday night). A source just filled me in on the latest tracking, and Awareness for Speed Racer is fine at 90 percent, but Definite Interest is hovering around 30 percent and its First Choice score is stuck at 16 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Iron Man million (Paramount) has surged past $121 million domestic with an estimated $5.72 on Wednesday. Sony's Made of Honor added about $1 million for a new cume of $17.7 million, while Baby Mama continues to run third with $642,000 or so and a new domestic total of just under $34 million.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Another solid weekday performance for Iron Man (Paramount) as Marvel Studio's meteoric blockbuster has added an estimated $5.82 million. That is down 16 percent from Monday, and it pushes the six-day cume to just under $115 million.

That six-day cume is the all-time 21st-best, and the all-time 5th-best for a non-sequel, trailing only Transformers, Spider-Man, The Passion of the Christ and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone. Historically, among blockbusters in the early May window, Iron Man's $5.82 million is also the all-time fourth-best follow-up Tuesday:

David Mamet is among the best playwrights and screenwriters working today. He is a two-time Academy Award nominee, receiving nods for The Verdict in 1987 and the brilliant Wag the Dog in 1992. He was also a Golden Globe nominee for the ingenious 1987 indie hit House of Games, which I recently revisited at the Aero Theatre in Santa Monica, operated by American Cinematheque.

As a scribe, Mamet has had some blockbuster hits, including 2001's Hannibal, which enjoyed a $58 million opening weekend and a domestic cume of $165 million, but, as a director, his films are far better suited to the arthouse than to the megaplex. So why is distributor Sony Classics jumping into the wide-release marketplace with Mamet's new Redbelt on 1,000 screens opposite Iron Man, Speed Racer and What Happens in Vegas?

What is wrong with Speed Racer (Warner Bros.)? A studio exec just filled me in on the latest industry tracking for the Wachowski Brothers's update of the late 1960s anime cartoon classic, and this picture has real problems in the marketplace.

The tracking has improved a bit, especially since Iron Man moved from Opening This Week to Currently in Release in audience surveys. Un-Aided Awareness has popped to 11 percent and the Total Aware is at a solid 83 percent. Definite Interest, however, is a concern at just 26 percent, trailing Fox's What Happens in Vegas, which is also set for Friday.

MONDAY NIGHT: John Favreau’s Iron Man (Paramount), the first self-produced and financed film from Marvel Studios, has grabbed another $6.5 million on Monday, bringing its four-and-a-half-day cume to $108.62 million. That represents a 25 percent drop from Sunday's $26 million take, which compares favorably to last year's Spider-Man 3 (Sony) on the same Monday.

Marvel Studios is already reaping the benefits of its first ever self-financed comic book adaptation, Iron Man (Paramount). Not only did the near-perfectly-reviewed Robert Downey Jr. film open to the all-time second-best three-day take for a non-sequel, with just over $100 million, but Marvel also announced today that the company has blown out analyst earnings expectations for the first quarter of 2008.

Steve Mason is now on Facebook and on MySpace.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The summer blockbuster season is off to a flying start with Robert Downey Jr. in Iron Man. Financed and produced by Marvel Studios and distributed by Paramount, the spectacularly-reviewed comic book adaptation scored an estimated 12 percent improvement from its opening day for a staggering $36.4 million Saturday. That should translate to a $94.74 million three-day, and when Thursday night preview screenings are added in, the John Favreau-directed pic should have $100.24 million banked by Monday morning.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING: Paramount's Iron Man is, by all accounts, off to a tremendous start, although it is well under the pre-opening night totals of $8 million for last year's Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Transformers.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: I did a personal survey of studio sources today, and they were unanimous in saying that the release of Grand Theft Auto IV, the Xbox 360 and Sony Playstation 3 video game sensation that his the market on Tuesday, will have absolutely no effect whatsoever on the box-office performance of Iron Man (Paramount) this weekend.

Warner Bros. and the Wachowski Brothers may need to call for a tow truck. Speed Racer, the big budget adaptation of the popular anime cartoon classic, remains in the "slow lane" according to the most recent industry tracking.

It is time to get very serious about the first major summer blockbuster Iron Man (Paramount), which will debut Thursday night at 8 p.m. at multiplexes from coast-to-coast. My sources tell me that this Robert Downey Jr. vehicle about a hard-drinking billionaire who creates a fantastic iron suit is actually “out-tracking” last summer’s Dreamworks/Paramount smash Transformers.

Steve Mason is now on Facebook and on MySpace.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Hollywood is heading into its biggest season after a very solid weekend. Last year, on the weekend before the release of mega-blockbuster Spider-Man 3 (Sony), the top 12 movies generated $62.2 million. This year, on the three-day prior to the release of Paramount's Iron Man, the top 12 have scored an estimated $80.6 million. That's a 25 percent year-over-year increase, and four films will finish with $10 million-plus.

As of Monday night, I projected that Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros.) would win this final pre-Iron Man (Paramount) weekend, and I'm standing by that, although I don't expect any new film or holdover to top $15 million.

Summer blockbuster season is just a week away, and I have been working my regular industry contacts to get an early feel for the first two weekends in May. The news is very good for Iron Man (Paramount), but Speed Racer (Warner Bros.) is a huge question mark.

The final weekend before the arrival of Paramount's Iron Man is shaping up to be an interesting tussle between a classic "guy movie" and a comedy with purely feminine appeal.

Steve Mason is now on Facebook and on MySpace.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Judd Apatow, Hollywood's reigning ruler of raunchy comedy, is in a mild slump. After the critical and commercial successes of last Summer's Superbad and Knocked Up, he could do no wrong, but then came the disastrous Walk Hard and, a few weeks ago, he unleashed another bomb as a producer, the poorly received Drillbit Taylor. Now along comes Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), an extension of the Apatow R-rated raunchy comedy brand, and, despite excellent reviews, it's finished a somewhat disappointing No. 2 for the weekend.

Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate), featuring martial arts superstars Jet Li and Jackie Chan, will likely win the box office weekend of April 18-20. With generally positive reviews and a family-friendly PG-13 rating, Kingdom has 7 percent Un-Aided Awareness (buzz) and a Total Aware of 76 percent, according to my studio sources. It has the strongest Definite Interest among Under 25s of the four new releases (53 percent with Males Under 25 and 32 percent with Females Under 25). An excellent 25 percent of young males name this martial arts fantasy film as their first choice, and it could even get a decent family bounce on Saturday. I'm forecasting a $17 million-$20 million opening weekend and $37 million-$42 million domestic.

Steve Mason is now on Facebook and on MySpace.

SATURDAY NIGHT: It's been a disappointing weekend for Hollywood as holdover 21 (Sony) has trumped three new wide studio releases. Based on Ben Mezrich's Bringing Down the House, 21 grabbed another $6.35 million on Saturday, and the Kevin Spacey-produced card counting thriller will wrap up its second weekend with a solid $15.5 million.

Steve Mason is now on Facebook and on MySpace.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The card counting thriller 21 (Sony) enjoyed a solid 19 percent increase Friday-to-Saturday for an excellent $10.17 million take on Saturday. Based on the book Bringing Down the House by Ben Mezrich and produced by Oscar winner Kevin Spacey, the hip gambling saga will likely grab another $6.3 million on Sunday, which will be enough to push it to $25 million for the weekend. (Scroll down to my Friday night update for more detail, including a link to my interview with card counter Jeff Ma.)

SATURDAY NIGHT: Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox) continued its box-office roll on Saturday, adding another $9.45 million, but it was down 10 percent from its monstrous Good Friday. The CGI Dr. Seuss adaptation should grab another $6.61 million or so on Easter Sunday for a three-day of $26.56 million, giving Horton the all-time fourth-best Easter weekend box office performance.

SATURDAY NIGHT: An elephant named Horton and the residents of a certain tiny dust speck are celebrating a huge opening weekend for the CGI-animated Horton Hears a Who! (20th Century Fox). Featuring the voices of Jim Carrey, Steve Carrell and comedy legend Carol Burnett, the Dr. Seuss adaptation received a 40 percent, family-driven Friday-to-Saturday increase for an $18.62 million second day. Assuming a 35 percent Sunday drop, Horton will deliver another $12.1 million, giving the warmly-reviewed charmer $44.02 million in the bank by Sunday night.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Roland Emmerich’s 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros.) received a better-than-expected 9 percent uptick in Saturday business, delivering an estimated $13.62 million. Many were looking for a Friday-to-Saturday dip in ticket sales, but the badly-reviewed prehistoric epic wasn't especially front-loaded. With an anticipated 38 percent drop on Sunday, 10,000 B.C. should rake in another $8.44 million or so for a three-day take of $34.57 million.

Warner Bros. has another March box-office juggernaut on its hands. On the first weekend  of March in 2007, they opened Zack Snyder's strikingly original 300 to a spectacular weekend of $70.8 million. Now Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B.C. is headed for a monstrous opening weekend according to industry tracking passe