WEDNESDAY NIGHT: There is no mystery about which film will win the weekend. It is more a question of how high the new Narnia saga Prince Caspian can fly?

On Sunday, I was very comfortable forecasting $60M-$70M based on industry tracking. The original franchise-starter The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe reached $65.5M on its opening weekend back in December 2005, and the film has gained popularity in the home video market. The Christian themes in the C.S. Lewis Narnia Chronicles make this the ultimate family-friendly movie, clearly supported by an aggressive faith-based marketing campaign in America’s churches.

The latest industry tracking for Prince Caspian, distributed by Disney, still trails the performance of last Summer’s Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix, so it seems unlikely that the new Narnia will top HP5’s $77.1M opening last July. One studio exec pointed out to me a bit of a “wild card’ in the tracking. Prince Caspian is likely to perform very well at inner city locations. Definite Interest is at 50% with African American moviegoers compared to the pre-opening 35% Harry Potter had.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Another solid weekday performance for Iron Man (Paramount) as Marvel Studio's meteoric blockbuster has added an estimated $5.82 million. That is down 16 percent from Monday, and it pushes the six-day cume to just under $115 million.

That six-day cume is the all-time 21st-best, and the all-time 5th-best for a non-sequel, trailing only Transformers, Spider-Man, The Passion of the Christ and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone. Historically, among blockbusters in the early May window, Iron Man's $5.82 million is also the all-time fourth-best follow-up Tuesday:

SATURDAY NIGHT: Rob Reiner'€™s The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) appears to have narrowly edged Sony'€™s First Sunday for a second day, although it'€™s a photo finish for Saturday. I'€™m estimating $8.12 million for the oldster road movie versus $7.87 million for the Ice Cube/Tracey Morgan comedy. Both films will likely come in above the three-day targets I set for them on Friday night.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The weekend after Thanksgiving is always one of the more sluggish three-day periods of the calendar year, and 2007 is no exception. Disney's Enchanted got a solid 51 percent Saturday bounce, but, even so, it will only manage a weekend take of about $17.1 million. Since opening on the Wednesday prior to "turkey day," the family film featuring likely Oscar nominee Amy Adams has grabbed an estimated $65 million-plus, but the new numbers are still a 50 percent drop from opening weekend. In the final analysis, Enchanted suffered virtually the same decline that struck Happy Feet on the same weekend last year, so Disney is probably quite satisfied. Their animation-live action mix should have great "legs" during the lucrative holiday moviegoing period, and awards buzz can only help to broaden the film's audience.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Amy Adams was nominated for a 2005 Academy Award for the funny, tiny little comedy Junebug, and then matched Will Ferrell joke for joke in her supporting turn in Talladega Nights last summer. Now, she's at the top of the box office and almost certainly headed for at least a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. Disney's Enchanted, featuring Adams as a "princess out-of-water," will wrap up the five-day weekend with an estimated $53.14 million. giving it the No. 2 Thanksgiving opening of all time.

SUNDAY MORNING: Normally, I would have written a huge analysis piece last night, but, I only managed to get numbers posted. As of this morning, Box Office Mojo is reporting some Saturday and weekend numbers that are lower than my projections, and it's possible that they're right ... but it's also possible that Dreamworks/Paramount is involved in a bit of gamesmanship.

SATURDAY NIGHT: As I first reported Friday night, Bee Movie (Dreamworks) will win the Veteran's Day weekend at the box office, switching places with last weekend's winner, American Gangster (Universal). Jerry Seinfeld's "pet project" swooped in for $11.67 million on Saturday and, with about half of America's school-age kids off on Monday, Sunday will Bee stronger than usual. I've penciled in an estimated 26 percent drop, which will have Movie at $26.58 million for its second weekend.

When Tom Cruise showed up on MTV's TRL on Monday, it was the marketing equivalent of a Hail Mary. The fact is that Lions for Lambs, the first movie produced by Cruise and Paula Wagner under the previously-dormant United Artist banner, is tracking poorly, especially with the Under 25 crowd. In fact, the more that Under 25's hear about the movie, the less interested they become.

SATURDAY NIGHT: It appears that American Gangster (Universal) is the weekend movie with the most "sting." The searing epic, from director Ridley Scott and starring Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Denzel Washington, got a nice 12 percent bump from its opening day for a second day haul of $17.69 million. I'm plugging in a Sunday drop of 23 percent, which would translate to a spectacular weekend of $46.41 million.

October was a disastrous month for the movie business. Only Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) and last weekend's Saw IV (Lionsgate) enjoyed opening weekends of $20 million-plus, and, if it weren't for The Game Plan (Disney), which opened in September but did steady business all month, it would have been even worse.

Paramount's Beowulf has popped onto the film industry tracking with some very impressive numbers. Based on the epic poem read by many a high school student, this Robert Zemeckis-directed adaptation is set for release on Nov. 16, and with a huge IMAX push along with over 700 traditional  locations offering Digital 3D, this action/fantasy should generate a fantastic opening.

(Please note: Saturday night, I posted a weekend projection of $14.1 million for Dan in Real Life. There was a mistake in my formula, and the actual projection should be $12.07 million. Sorry for the inconvenience. The information has been corrected below.)

SATURDAY NIGHT: The Saw franchise is alive and well, but Jigsaw may be showing his age. Saw IV (Lionsgate), which opened with a monstrous $14 million-plus on Friday, appears to have taken a bigger-than-expected Saturday drop. Whereas 2006's Saw III fell about 20 percent from its opening day, the newest gruesome installment tailed off by 30 percent day-over-day. The Saturday haul is still a healthy $10.01 million, but it's now unlikely that Saw IV will challenge the franchise's best-ever opening weekend ($33.6 million for Saw III).

The original Saw, released for Halloween of 2004, was, for me, among the most blazingly original horror films ever made. That was an absolutely ingenious movie with a uniquely twisted premise, and the gore and sadism was balanced by a certain evil freshness. Witten by Leigh Whannell and directed by James Wan, Saw was rewarded with an $18.2 million opening weekend and a total domestic gross of $55.1 million.

On Monday, I reported that the tracking for Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie (Dreamworks/Paramount) suggests a $38 million-plus opening weekend when it hits the marketplace on Nov. 2. My analysis of the most recent tracking data indicates that there will be a second major blockbuster opening on that same day. Ridley Scott's eagerly-awaited American Gangster (Universal), starring Oscar winners Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe, has real traction in the marketplace, and it has the look of a "can't miss hit."

Coming off a monumentally disappointing weekend, featuring a slightly disappointing 30 Days of Night (Sony), a decently performing Gone Baby Gone, and a fleet of bombs including The Comebacks (Fox), Rendition (New Line), Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount), Sarah Landon & the Paranormal Hour (Freestyle Releasing) and The Ten Commandments (Rocky Mountain Pictures), Hollywood is hoping for a November box office boom.

SATURDAY NIGHT: The R-rated vampire yarn 30 Days of Night (Sony) fell 13 percent from its Friday opening, but the Sam Raimi-produced bloodfest still managed to scare up $5.43 million in Saturday business. 30 Days of Night will win the weekend with an estimated $15.05 million, but Hollywood is clearly still in the dark.

An abbreviated Final Weekend Tracking column this week. Judging from the latest industry tracking, it's an easy weekend to call. Sony's 30 Days of Night should coast to the three-day win. After recent strong openings for Halloween ($26.3 million) and Resident Evil: Extinction ($23.6 million), it's safe to say that there's still a demand for a well-marketed R-rated horror flick. I'm looking for something in the $18 million-$21 million range.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) got a solid 21percent uptick from its excellent opening day, and, although the movie won't reach $25 million for the weekend, its expected $23.07 million haul will be more than enough to win the 3-day. It also marks the second-best opening of Perry's filmmaking career, trailing only 2006's Madea's Family Reunion ($30 million opening).

SATURDAY NIGHT: There was no surprise surge for The Heartbreak Kid on Saturday. The Dreamworks/Paramount comedy, featuring megastar Ben Stiller and directed by The Farrelly Brothers, got a small uptick from Friday's dismal opening for a $5.17 million Saturday. That should translate to a meager $13.12 million, far below even the already low industry expectations.

What ever happened to The Farrelly Brothers?

SATURDAY NIGHT: After scoring a narrow box office win over The Kingdom (Universal) on Friday, The Game Plan (Buena Vista) has turned it into a good old-fashioned "blow-out." While the Peter Berg-directed thriller saw a 13 percent or so uptick from opening day, Disney's gridiron family comedy received a huge "kiddie bounce."

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will test his box office muscle this weekend with the PG-rated Buena Vista comedy The Game Plan. This guy is a charismatic screen presence, but he's apparently been "Disney-fied" according to critics. Rotten Tomatoes has The Game Plan at 36 percent Fresh, although it's so far been given a marginally better score of 43 by MetaCritic.

SATURDAY P.M. UPDATE: On Saturday, Resident Evil Extinction (Sony) dipped an estimated 9 percent, but still managed to rake in $8.64 million. With a 63 percent drop on Sunday, exactly what Resident Evil: Apocalypse fell on its first Sunday, the zombie scarefest will finish the weekend with $23.59 million, enough to make it the biggest opening of the franchise. Meanwhile, Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) was essentially flat for the day, adding a an estimated $4.95 millino and giving the Dane Cook-Jessica Alba raunchfest a respectable $13.1 million opening weekend.

The likely winner at the box office this weekend will be Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony). Milla Jovovich returns as Resident Evil heroine Alice, in the third and (reportedly) final film in the series of films based on the incredibly popular video game series of the same name.

The Brave One (Warner Bros.), a Death Wish-style action thriller starring Jodie Foster, grabbed another $5.55 million on Saturday, and its somewhat disappointing $14.1 million weekend will be more than enough to win the weekend domestic box-office battle, but David Cronenberg's Eastern Promises (Focus Features) is the most talked-about movie in the industry this weekend.

Entering the weekend, Jodie Foster's last three films had all debuted with more than $20 million on opening weekend. Neil Jordan's The Brave One (Warner Bros.) will snap that streak, as the new street vengeance thriller opened to $4.8 million Friday. That will translate to an estimated $15.1 million weekend, which is well below industry expectations (and Warner Bros.'s hopes).

Each week, we round up the weekend box-office predictions of the so-called experts, including yours truly. The old show business adage "Nobody knows anything" is in full effect because, even after studying and poring over the tracking, the release plan, the screen counts and the reviews, and even after seeing the films, the moviegoing public is still too fickle and unpredictable for this to be a science rather than an art. Hopefully, this weekly feature will keep me — and the rest of the box office "authorities" — humble and be instructive for Fantasy Moguls players.

Jodie Foster returns to America's multiplexes this weekend as sort of a feminist Death Wish-style Charles Bronson in Neil Jordan's The Brave One (Warner Bros) on 2,755 screens. Unlike fellow 40-plus stars Meg Ryan and Sandra Bullock, Foster seems to gaining clout at the box office.

James Mangold's remake of the classic Western 3:10 to Yuma rustled up another $5.23 million on Saturday, and the well-reviewed genre pic will finish the weekend with a respectable $14.23 million. That's right in line with industry expectations, but Lionsgate was almost certainly hoping for an upside surprise. That number will give Yuma the third-best opening weekend for a true Western in the past 20 years, trailing only 1990's Maverick ($17.2 million) and Unforgiven, which opened to $15 million back in 1992.